Informs Annual Meeting Phoenix 2018

INFORMS Phoenix – 2018

SB37

the number of markets served to/from large airports. The results suggest that LCCs outpaced major carriers in terms of markets entered while major carriers have gained a greater flight frequency share in the markets they already serve. However, evidence suggests that the top four LCCs adopted different operating strategies during the study period. 2 - Predicting Demand for Intra-urban Air Taxi Service Laurie A. Garrow, Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Civil & Environmental Engr, 790 Atlantic Drive, Atlanta, GA, 30332- 0355, United States, Robert Binder, Sreekar-Shashank Boddupalli, Thomas Douthat, Brian German Imagine a world where instead of sitting in traffic on the downtown connector, you could simply drive to a vertiport near your home, enter into a small electric propulsion aircraft, fly over traffic, land on a rooftop near your work, and either walk or have an rideshare vehicle take you to your office. In this presentation, we provide an overview of ongoing research in air taxi flights for cities and present results from a survey we conducted of 2,500 commuters in five cities in the U.S. to estimate commuting demand and willingness to pay for these air taxi flights. 3 - How Frequent Flyers Choose Airlines Case of Turkey Ozay Ozaydin, Dogus University, Zeamet Cad. No:21, Istanbul, 34722, Turkey Airline industry can easily be considered to have the fiercest competition among businesses, due to the sensitive nature of customer trends. Thus, airline companies do and must dynamically adapt a number of competitive strategies in order to survive in this market and also expand their share. These strategies include these main topics: pricing, on-time performance, passenger satisfaction, luggage handling, flight safety and corporate image. The common dominator for all these topics is customer focus.The airline passengers’ selection principles are used for main criteria for a comparison of airlines operating in Turkey. n SB37 North Bldg 225A Control and Analysis of Queueing Systems Sponsored: Applied Probability Sponsored Session Chair: Guodong Pang, Penn State University, University Park, PA, 16802, United States 1 - Stability of a Standard Decentralised Medium Access Aleksandr Stolyar, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1308 W. Main Street, Office 156CSL, Urbana, IL, 61801, United States, Vsevolod Shneer A decentralised medium access algorithm is considered. Each node generates packets at the rate lambda. Each packet takes one time unit (slot) to transmit. There are no collisions - neighbouring nodes cannot transmit simultaneously. The algorithm we study is standard in that: a node with empty queue does not compete for access; the access procedure by a node does not depend on its queue length, as long as it is non-zero. For two system topologies, with nodes arranged in a circle and in a line, we prove the system stochastic stability under the condition lambda < 2/5. This result is intuitive for the circle topology (which, however, does not help to prove it), but not intuitive at all for the line topology. 2 - Optimal Service Elasticity in Large Scale Distributed Systems Debankur Mukherjee, Eindhoven University of Technology, Heeghtakker 78A, Eindhoven, 5625SW, Netherlands, Sem Borst, Souvik Dhara, Johan S. van Leeuwaarden, Aleksandr Stolyar A fundamental challenge in large-scale systems is to achieve efficient server utilization and limit energy consumption, while providing excellent performance. We propose a joint auto-scaling and load balancing scheme, which does not require any global queue length information or explicit knowledge of system parameters, and yet provides provably near-optimal service elasticity. Specifically, we prove that both the waiting time of tasks and the relative energy consumed by idle servers vanish in the limit. At the same time, the proposed scheme operates in a distributed fashion and involves only constant communication overhead per task, ensuring scalability in massive data center operations.

n SB35 North Bldg 224A Joint Session AAS/TSL-Air: Airport and Airspace Capacity Sponsored: Aviation Applications Sponsored Session Chair: Yuan Wang, University of South Florida, 6507 Markstown Dr, Tampa, FL 1 - Dynamic Prediction of Runway Configuration and Airport Acceptance Rate Yuan Wang, University of South Florida, 6507 Markstown Dr, Tampa, FL, 33617, United States, Yu Zhang Automated prediction of runway configuration and airport capacity is critical for the future generation of air traffic management. Airport Acceptance Rate (AAR) is a key parameter to measure capacity in Ground Delay Program, and runway configuration is prerequisite to determine or adjust AAR. In this study, different weather forecast information was collected, decoded and then integrated. Then we proposed a time-dependent data-driven deep learning mechanism to predict runway configuration and Airport Acceptance Rate (AAR) simultaneously from the multi-source weather forecast, as well as airport condition and air traffic demand. 2 - En-route Flow Corridor Capacity with a Dynamic Wake Separation Policy Azin Zare-Noghabi, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States, John Shortle To prevent en-route wake encounters, aircraft must maintain adequate separation. Current separation requirements are static. This talk investigates a dynamic wake separation concept where separation requirements are updated using real-time meteorological and aircraft-state data. This allows separation requirements to be specified based on more precise state information, rather than using pessimistic assumptions. A simulation of an en-route flow corridor is presented and capacity benefits are discussed under a variety of traffic scenarios. 3 - Ground Delay Program Planning with Uncertain Airport Capacity Jun Chen, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, 92182, United States To efficiently balance traffic demand and capacity, ground delay program (GDP) planning rely on accurate predictions of future airport capacity. However, these predictions are inherently uncertain due to factors such as weather. This work will present a robust method to incorporate probabilistic information of capacity for GDP planning with chance constraints. The idea is to constrain the chance of a capacity constraint violation, based on probabilistic information about future capacity prediction. The major advantage is to provide robust solutions with user- defined service level, which can be adjusted by the air traffic authority or airlines to ensure reliable operations. 4 - Optimizing Flight Schedules for Minimum Delay Rajesh Piplani, Nanyang Technological University, School of MAE, 50 Nanyang Avenue N3-2C-84, Singapore, 639638, Singapore, Wai Lun Cheung In order to minimize the imbalance between capacity and demand, the airports managers negotiate with the airlines the flight schedules months ahead of time. In this research, we propose an integrated approach to optimize the daily flight schedules in light of the delays likely to be encountered on the day of actual flights; we estimate the delays from sequences of flight movements, optimized dynamically and continuously during the peak period of operations. Our proposed integrated approach would better estimate the delays likely to be encountered, and the resulting schedule interventions by airport managers (developed on the basis of a dynamic programming model) that can reduce those delays. n SB36 North Bldg 224B Airline Competition and Customer Choice Sponsored: Aviation Applications Sponsored Session Chair: Susan Hotle, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia 1 - The Evolution of Low-Cost Carrier Operational Strategies Pre- and Post-Recession Susan Hotle, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, United States, Stephanie Atallah, Stacey Mumbower This study analyzes LCC competition strategies for CONUS markets. Using OAG schedules, pre- and post-recession trends in LCC flight offerings were compared with their major carrier counterparts in terms of markets served, flight frequency, and competition structures of served markets. Results show that LCCs increased

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