The Natural Fix?

Historic CO 2

emissions by region

Milions of metric tonnes

2 000

North America

fixed or released as carbon dioxide or methane – vary greatly from place to place. These are dependent on a variety of condi- tions of which climate (chiefly temperature and, on land, pre- cipitation) and nutrient availability are the most important. Changing climate will itself have an impact on the natural dis- tribution of biomes and ecosystems and on the carbon cycle both globally and locally. HUMAN IMPACTS ON THE CARBON CYCLE Humans are affecting the carbon cycle in a number of ways. The burning of large amounts of fossil fuels releases long- stored organic carbon into the atmosphere. Production of ce- ment produces atmospheric carbon through the burning of cal- cium carbonate. Many land-use changes also tend to increase the amount of atmospheric carbon: conversion of natural eco- systems to areas of human use (agriculture, pasture, building land and so forth) typically involves a transition from an area of relatively high carbon storage (often forest or woodland) to one of lower carbon storage. The excess carbon is often released through burning. From the point of view of climate regulation, increasing livestock production, notably of ruminants, has a particularly marked effect as it increases the production of the highly potent greenhouse gas, methane. Historically, it is estimated that since 1850 just under 500 Gt of carbon may have been released into the atmosphere in total as a result of human actions, around three quarters through fossil fuel use and most of the remainder because of land-use change, with around 5% attributed to cement production. Of the total around 150 Gt is believed to have been absorbed by the oceans, between 120 and 130 Gt by terrestrial systems and the remain- der to have stayed in the atmosphere (Houghton 2007). The most recent estimates indicate that human activities are currently responsible for annual global carbon emissions of around 10 Gt, of which around 1.5 Gt is a result of land use change and the remainder comes from fossil fuel use and ce- ment production (Canadell et al. 2007). This has led to an aver- age annual rate of increase of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere of just under 2 ppm for the years 1995–2005 compared with around 1.25 ppm for the years 1960–1995 (IPCC 2007b).

1 500

Global land use change flux Fossil fuels and cement flux

1 000

500

0

-500

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

1850

1870

1890

1910

1930

1950

1970

1990

2004

1 500

South America and Caribbean

1 000

Global land use change flux Fossil fuels and cement flux

500

0

-500

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

1850

1870

1890

1910

1930

1950

1970

1990

2004

1 500

Western Europe

1 000

Global land use change flux Fossil fuels and cement flux

500

0

-500

2000

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

1990

2004

1850

1870

1890

1910

1930

1950

1970

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2009.

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