1st ICAI 2020

International Conference on Automotive Industry 2020

Mladá Boleslav, Czech Republic

Figure 1: Outlook for the Development of the Number of Passenger Cars in the Czech Republic (Average Growth)

Source: Own elaboration (2020) 3.2 Estimation of the Development of the Share of Electric Vehicles in the Total Passenger Car Fleet of the Czech Republic For the growth of electromobility in the Czech Republic, the key question is what share electrically powered vehicles will have in new registrations and in the entire vehicle fleet of the Czech Republic. We make the following assumptions: • Customers (both firms and individuals will only purchase electric cars (BEVs and plug-in hybrids) new and will not import them used from abroad, • Through the year 2040, registrations of new cars in the Czech Republic will on average grow by one percent per annum, and the total vehicle fleet of the Czech Republic will also grow by one percent per annum, • The share of electric cars in total new car registrations in the Czech Republic will grow in accord with our proposed scenario below, which is based on the currently approved emissions regulations of the European Union and projections of the share of electric cars in total production, as estimated by the International Energy Agency (2019), by the research organisation Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2019) or as reported by Wolf and Korzynietz (2019) for advanced EU electric vehicle countries - an average of 30% in 2030 and 70% in 2040. Not only the emission regulation, but also peer influence may have a positive impact for development of electric vehicles. Studies demonstrate that an individual’s behavior is often influenced by the behaviors of neighbors, for example when buying an electric vehicle (Wolske, 2020).

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