1st ICAI 2020

International Conference on Automotive Industry 2020

Mladá Boleslav, Czech Republic

Logistics Networks Vulnerability ‒ Modelling and Simulation Approach Lech Bukowski 1 , Jerzy Feliks 2 , Marek Karkula 3 WSB University 1 Business Engineering Center ul. Cieplaka 1C, Dąbrowa Górnicza, 41-300 Poland AGH University of Science and Technology 2,3 Faculty of Management Gramatyka 10 st, Krakow, 30-067 Poland e-mail: lbukowski@wsb.edu.pl 1 , jfeliks@zarz.agh.edu.pl 2 , mkarkula@zarz.agh.edu.pl 3 Abstract The objective of this paper is to come up with a concept of dynamic vulnerability and resilience modelling for the complex logistic systems, and especially the global supply networks. The core idea of the overall concept is based on the experiences gained in the area of the supply chain risk management, the service engineering, the reliability engineering as well as that in the field of the resilience engineering. The objective of this paper is to come up with a new framework for vulnerability modelling of logistics networks. The framework allows to explore a big number of interrelated, dynamic and random events that drive logistics processes to develop different scenarios in a virtual environment. In practice, this framework could be used to create an adaptive operational management strategy that responds to the external threats and hazards, such as natural catastrophes, demand fluctuations and changes of suppliers. Keywords: logistics networks, modelling and simulation, vulnerability JEL Classification: C63, M11, L81 1. Introduction One of the main problems by modern logistics systems management, especially within the global supply network, is the disruption risk and loss of supply continuity (Security Service 2006). It results from the efforts to minimize costs by introducing Lean Manufacturing, Lean Logistics, and Lean Management as well as the increasing number and intensity of external threats. Reducing the number of suppliers according to the “4S” principle (a Single Source Supply Strategy), introducing to a greater extent the Just In Time Manufacturing system, minimizing the level of buffers, and configuring tightly connected supply chains have resulted in a significant increase in the level of delivery disruption risk (Kleindorfer & Saad 2005, Scarborough 2007). Based on these works, as well as on the main trends in the risk understanding (Aven 2014, Aven & all 2014) we presented at the conferences ESREL 2015 and ESREL 2016 papers (Bukowski, Feliks &Majewska 2015, 2016), which proposed the framework for disruption risk modelling in the complex logistic networks. The core idea of the overall

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