ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

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The EU supply needs are defined as the difference between the EU demand and the indigenous production, taking into account the biomethane production, as present- ed in the Supply and Demand chapters. In this assessment, the EU supply needs are only covered by extra-EU imports. Depending on future developments, higher indigenous production (from biomethane, hydrogen from power-to-gas facilities, new conventional and unconventional production) could also help to meet the sup- ply needs. The combination of the different demand scenarios, with decreasing expectations for the indigenous production, except for biomethane, leads to increasing supply needs over time in the Blue Transition and Green Evolution scenarios. The EU Green Revolution is the only scenario where the lower demand together with the biometh- ane production nearly compensates the decrease of the conventional production and leads to more stable needs over time. Different supply mixes for meeting the Supply Adequacy Outlook over the time hori- zon are analysed as part of the assessment, they are described in section 6.3.2.4.

5,000 TWh

Extra-EU Supply need evolution

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2035

2017

2020

2025

2030

Green Evolution

Blue Transition

EU Green Revolution

Figure 6.2: Evolution of extra-EU supply needs in the different scenarios

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