ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Under high demand situations

Under high demand situations the supply and demand adequacy relies on a signif- icant share of storage injection. Over time the storages together with the Russian supply replace the disappearing flexibility from National production. This is sensitive to the demand evolution explored in the scenarios. The following charts illustrate the evolution in the Blue Transition and EU Green Revolution scenarios. Russian gas is the only source showing an increasing share on every analysed con- figuration. Regarding LNG, available LNG flexibility in the tanks is used in addition to the LNG deliveries from carriers. The volumes in tanks are the difference between the operative fill level of the LNG tanks and their technically required minimum fill level. In total, the regasification capacities are fully used on the peak day, while UGS in particular could still provide additional flexibility.

20 15 10 5 25 40 35 30 %

Supply mix on Peak day – Blue Transition

36%

34%

32%

21%

21%

21%

19%

18%

15%

15%

13%

11%

10%

10%

8%

4%

4%

3%

1% 0%

1% 1%

1% 0%

0

2017

2020

2030

Algeria (DZ) Libya (LY)

LNG (carriers + tanks) Norway (NO)

Russia (RU) UGS

National Production (NP) Azerbaijan (AZ)

Figure 6.9: Supply mix peak day, Blue Transition

20 15 10 5 25 40 35 30 %

Supply mix on Peak day – EU Green Revolution

33%

30%

29%

24%

22%

22%

21%

19%

16%

15%

14%

11%

11%

11%

9%

4%

4%

3%

1% 0%

1% 1%

1% 0%

0

2017

2020

2030

Algeria (DZ) Libya (LY)

LNG (carriers + tanks) Norway (NO)

Russia (RU) UGS

National Production (NP) Azerbaijan (AZ)

Figure 6.10: Supply mix peak day, EU Green Revolution

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report