ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

6.3.3.2 Supply source dependence

The supply source dependence should be understood as the minimum share of a given source in the supply mix, or said differently the share of this source which can- not be substituted by the other supply sources. The analysis is done over the whole year. It has both a European and a country-level dimension. On a European level, it relates to the overall demand and supply volumes that are available. The European- level situation therefore reflects a supply gap and not an infrastructure gap. The cooperative supply source dependence  1) (CSSD) is assessed independently for each extra-EU supply under the assumption that countries interact in a coopera- tive way . This means that they try to share the level of dependence with other coun- tries. As a consequence of such cooperative behaviour, different levels of depend- ence between neighbouring countries indicate an infrastructure limitation. This can be mitigated by new infrastructure. The results are shown for the Green Evolution scenario for the years 2017, 2020 and 2030. The country-level results have a low sensitivity to the demand and are similar for the other scenarios. For 2017, the results reflect the “tomorrow as today” ap- proach applied for the definition of the supply potentials, as described in the supply chapter. The gas infrastructure does not show any dependence to Algerian, Azerbaijan or Lib- yan supply, already now as well as on the long-run. The volume of any of these sources is low enough to be substituted by the other supply sources (no supply gap), and there is no infrastructure gap preventing this substitution, neither at European- level nor at country-level. This indicates that from a security of supply perspective the current gas infrastructure would be resilient to a long-term disruption of any of these sources. This is not the case for Norwegian, Russian or LNG supplies which show an Euro- pean-level dependence, indicating these sources are needed to achieve the Euro- pean supply and demand balance. At country-level, only Russian supply and LNG show local high dependence. High dependence to Russian supply is both a secu- rity of supply and a competition issue. In the case of LNG, dependence is only a competition issue. Indeed, as LNG is a diversified supply per se (see GLE analysis in section 3.3.2 in the supply chapter), security of supply is not at stake.

 1) The results for the uncooperative supply source dependence (USSD) and supply source price dependence (SSDPe) indicators from the CBA methodology are provided in Annex but not presented in this chapter. Indeed USSD points at the most dependent country from a supply perspective, but is poorly relevant for the infrastructure gap identification as it does not provide information on infrastructure limitations. SSPDe results show a very high correlation to CSSD results and therefore do not provide further insight compared to CSSD. More methodology-related information on these indicators is available in Annex F.

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report