ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

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GREEN EVOLUTION This scenario is characterised by favourable economic conditions and high green ambitions with high RES development. Realisation of environment targets and their fulfilment is set at a high priority and backed by public acceptance but are dealt with using more national policies than in the EU Green Revolution scenario. The European economy is prospering enabling a high support for renewable energy in the long-term perspective. This scenario is on track with the EU 2050 targets. Efficiencies for current technologies undergo a fast development, the CO ² price is at highest level. The internal energy market is well working, European member states are characterised by a strong cooperation, especially regarding the reduction of CO ² emissions. Infrastructure projects which have a positive impact to reach the environmental tar- gets will be realised in time. As a significant part of the energy generation comes from renewables, this scenario expects generally an overall decreasing trend in fossil fuel usage, especially in coal but also in gas demand. Strong financial support leads to higher penetration of initially uneconomic energy solutions like heat pumps and energy from biomass and also supports enduring device replacement as well as a high rate of house insulation. Energy efficiency shows the highest improvements and leads overall to lower energy intensity. Carbon- neutral buildings are very popular and backed by a high performance of energy certificates. Buildings mainly get heated through the access to district heating and heat pumps, less so by conventional gas. The industrial sector shows similar characteristics as the residential one. Moreover, high efficiency and lower energy intensity leads to a stable industrial energy demand. Energy from biomass and more electrification (“power to heat”) are used for indus- trial purposes. Carbon Capture Storage or Utilisation (“CCS” / “CCU”) contributes to the reduction of CO ² emissions. The highest penetration of renewables supported by regulation fosters the use of less polluting fuels. Hydro-storages are centralised, nuclear power remains at the same level, depending on national policies. RES backup-capacities come mainly from gas-fired power plants. Heating demand and the spread of electric cars are overcompensating gained energy efficiency and leads to an increasing electricity de- mand. Gas in the transportation sector shows a moderate penetration with some financial support. LNG becomes the main fuel for ships (small and container ships) and HGV/HDV. The high overall RES development leads also to the highest penetration of electrification in the transport sector with cars mostly running on electricity. In addition, electrification in this sector is backed by a strong financial support. On the long-run oil is being replaced as the main fuel in the transportation sector and plays a minor role in the future energy mix.

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