2015 Informs Annual Meeting

TA60

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015

2 - A Revenue Adequate Stochastic Programming Market Clearing Mechanism for Effective Integration of Volatile Renewable Generation Golbon Zakeri, Dr., University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand, g.zakeri@auckland.ac.nz Pentration of generation from volatile renewable sources of electricity generation has substantially increased in electricity markets around the world. Various authors (e.g. Pritchard et al and Morales et al) have proposed mechanisms to deal with this however these approaches are not revenue adequate under each scenario (although they are in expectation). We will introduce a variation of the stochastic dispatch mechanism that is revenue adequate under each scenario and present its properties. 3 - Parallel Computing of Stochastic Programs with Application to Energy System Capacity Expansion Andrew Liu, Assistant Professor, Purdue University, 315 N. Grant Street, West Lafayette, IN, 47907, United States of America, andrewliu@purdue.edu, Run Chen Power grids’ planning and operations exhibit extreme multiscale, ranging from hourly operation to decades of planning. The linkage between decisions at different time scales may be relaxed to produce multiple independent subproblems. We propose to use an augmented Lagrangian multiplier method to design parallel algorithms to solve such multiscale problems. Convergence of the embedded algorithm for convex problems will be shown, along with preliminary numerical results. Topics in Oil, Natural Gas, and Alternative Fuels Sponsor: ENRE – Energy II – Other (e.g., Policy, Natural Gas, Climate Change) Sponsored Session Chair: Sauleh Siddiqui, Assistant Professor, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 N. Charles St. Latrobe 205, Baltimore, MD, 21218, United States of America, siddiqui@jhu.edu 1 - Rate-of-return Regulation and Investment in a Natural Gas Pipeline Olivier Massol, IFP School, 228-232 avenue Napoléon Bonaparte, Rueil-Malmaison, France, olivier.massol@ifpen.fr, Florian Perrotton We examine the economics of a natural gas pipeline project provided by a foreign private firm in a LDC. The infrastructure could trigger possible future developments of the domestic gas sector. We address two questions. First, can a rate-of-return (ROR) type of regulatory organization induce the firm to rationally accept to build ahead of proven demand? Second, how far would the allowed ROR have to rise for the pipeline design to be adopted be congruent with the socially desirable one? 2 - Multistage Stochastic Model for Natural Gas Contract and Maintenance Scheduling of Power Plants Zhouchun Huang, University of Central Florida, 4000 Central Florida Blvd, Orlando, Fl, 32816, United States of America, hzclinger@gmail.com, Qipeng Zheng Natural gas contracting and equipment maintenance scheduling are two major factors that affect the profit of a natural gas power plant. We consider both of them together and propose a multistage stochastic model to address the uncertainties of gas and electricity prices in the market. A scenario-based decomposition strategy is applied to solve the model and the numerical results will be present. 3 - A Crude Oil Market Model for the United States Olufolajimi Oke, PhD Candidate, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 N Charles St, Latrobe 205, Baltimore, MD, 21218, United States of America, ooke1@jhu.edu, Max Marshall, Ricky Poulton, Sauleh Siddiqui, Daniel Huppmann The United States’ crude oil industry currently faces infrastructural and environmental challenges, as production surges and crude-by-rail shipments and incidents increase. We adapt Huppman and Egging’s dynamic Generalized Nash Equilibrium model (Multimod) to the US market. Thus, we can analyze the transportation of crude oil and explore possible scenarios to recommend decisions for safe movement, as well as gauge the economic impact of new regulations and policy interventions. TA58 58-Room 110A, CC

4 - Volumes for the Renewable Fuel Standard using Multiobjective Programs with Equilibrium Constraints Sauleh Siddiqui, Assistant Professor, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 N. Charles St. Latrobe 205, Baltimore, MD, 21218, United States of America, siddiqui@jhu.edu, Adam Christensen We apply a Multiobjective Program with Equilibrium Constraints to the United States renewable fuel market to help understand why it has been so difficult in releasing the 2014 mandate for the Renewable Fuel Standard. Our analysis provides a variety of policy alternatives to aid in setting these volume obligations and is applicable to a wide variety of climate and energy market settings.

TA59 59-Room 110B, CC

Fire Management 1: Suppression Sponsor: ENRE – Environment II – Forestry Sponsored Session

Chair: Vitaliy Krasko, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St, Golden, CO, United States of America, vkrasko@mymail.mines.edu 1 - Efficient use of Aerial Firefighting Assets Matthew Thompson, US Forest Service, 800 E Beckwith, Missoula, MT, 59801, United States of America, mpthompson02@fs.fed.us This presentation will explore themes in measuring and improving the efficiency of aerial firefighting assets. Insights from case studies in the US and Italy will be highlighted. 2 - The Development and use of Forest Fire Detection System Performance Measures Dave Martell, david.martell@utoronto.ca Forest fire detection systems are designed to detect fires while they are small but concerted efforts to minimize detection size can enhance the performance of the detection sub-system at the expense of overall fire management system performance. We describe the development and use of a detection system performance measure designed to overcome such problems. 3 - A Network Interdiction Approach for Mitigating a Pyro-Terror Attack Eghbal Rashidi, PhD Student, Mississippi State University, 1212 Louisville St, # 58, Starkville, MS, 39759, United States of America, er442@msstate.edu, Hugh Medal We study a problem in which a group of terrorists seek to maximize the impact of a pyro-terror attack by optimally locating the fire ignition points on a landscape, whereas fire managers wish to interdict the expansion of fire and mitigate the damage using an optimal fuel treatment plan. We model the problem as a Stackelberg game and develop a decomposition algorithm to solve it. 4 - Machine Learning Methods to Improve Fire Suppression Policies on Simulated Landscapes Hailey Buckingham, hailey.buckingham@oregonstate.edu, Claire Montgomery Any policy which informs wildfire suppression decisions affects the future evolution of the landscape as patterns of growth, harvest, and fire each adjust to the influence of the policy’s fire suppression regime. Improving a policy is difficult because the long-term effects may not be obvious a priori because present decisions change future states. In this study, we use machine learning techniques and monte carlo simulations of forested landscapes to improve a wildfire suppression policy. TA60 60-Room 111A, CC Education I Contributed Session Chair: Nabil Belacel, Senior Research Officer, NRC, 100 des Aboiteaux Street, Moncton, NB, E1A7R1, Canada, nabil.belacel@nrc.gc.ca 1 - Co-Author Network Analysis of Operations Management Journals Bonie(he) Zhang, PhD Candidate, Rutgers Business School, 1 Washington Park, Newark, United States of America, boni.zhang@rutgers.edu, Yao Zhao, Xinxin Xuan We study the co-author network of flag-ship INFORMS journals in operations management such as Management Science and Operations Research. Our empirical exploration characterizes the changing patterns of the co-author network and provides insights to authors on how to improve productivity through exploitation of the academic social network.

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