2015 Informs Annual Meeting

TA61

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015

2 - Case Study: Vastrapur Car Rental Services Balaraman Rajan, Assistant Professor, California State University East Bay, 25800 Carlos Bee Blvd, Hayward, CA, 94542, United States of America, balaraman.rajan@csueastbay.edu, Ravichandran Narasimhan In this case we discuss the revenue model for a rental car business in India. The case can be used for teaching topics in probability and decision modeling at both undergraduate and graduate level. The first part of the case focuses on expected value and the second part of the case involves decision making under uncertainty and strategic choices. It can also be extended to train students in basic simulation using Crystal Ball or other such tools. 3 - A Learner-Analytics Based Approach for Attenuating the Course-Level Dropout Rate Aysegul Demirtas, Graduate Student, Arizona State University, 699 S Mill Avenue, Tempe, AZ, 85281, United States of America, ademirt2@asu.edu, Jennifer Bekki, Esma Gel, George Runger Despite their potential to attract larger numbers of students, online courses remain plagued by a student attrition problem. We apply data mining and learner analytics techniques to better understand online learner behavior in an effort to attenuate the online course drop-out rate. We present our modeling approach, utilizing data from student interactions with the course LMS, and our findings on course-level persistence based on the application of our approach to data from multiple courses. 4 - The School Closing Problem When school districts face declining enrollments, schools must be closed to reduce costs. The choice of which schools to be shuttered is controversial. Surprisingly, few papers have considered this problem. This paper considers the effect of using existing school choice mechanisms to close schools. It turns out simple modifications of existing algorithms produce perverse results. We also establish non-existence of a Pareto-efficient and strategy-proof mechanism in a basic school closing model. TA61 61-Room 111B, CC Sustainability in Energy Sector: Policy Analysis and Technology Assessment Sponsor: ENRE – Environment I – Environment and Sustainability Sponsored Session Chair: Yihsu Chen, Associate Professor, University of California, Merced, 5200 N. Lake Rd, Merced, CA, 95343, United States of America, ychen26@ucmerced.edu 1 - Market Impacts of Energy Storage in a Transmission-Constrained Power System Afzal Siddiqui, University College London, Department of Statistical Science, Gower Street, London, UK, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom, afzal.siddiqui@ucl.ac.uk, Vilma Virasjoki, Paula Rocha, Ahti Salo Intermittent renewable energy (RE) technologies require conventional power plants to ramp up more often. In turn, energy storage may offset the intermittency of RE technologies and facilitate their integration into the grid. In order to assess the consequences of storage, we use a complementarity model with market power, transmission constraints, and uncertainty in RE output. We find that although storage reduces congestion and ramping costs, it may actually increase greenhouse gas emissions. 2 - Do Emissions Caps Lead to Carbon Leakage in Regional Markets? The Case of South-east Europe Jing Xu, University of Pennsylvania, 209S 33rd Street, Department of Mathematics, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, United States of America, xjing@sas.upenn.edu

3 - Equilibrium Investment Strategies in Renewable Portfolio Standards under Uncertainty Yuta Kamobayashi, Tokyo University of Science, 2641 Yamazaki, Noda-shi, Chiba, Japan, 7414609@ed.tus.ac.jp, Ryuta Takashima, Makoto Tanaka, Yihsu Chen Recently renewable portfolio standard (RPS) has been introduced due to further penetration of renewable energies. In this paper, we propose a two-period competition model in an oligopolistic electricity industry with uncertain demand in order to consider investment behaviors for firms in a framework of the PRS. We analyze an effect of the RPS on investments in renewables and non- renewables. Additionally, we show how a percentage of production from renewables affects the market equilibrium. 4 - Analysis of Regional Market Impact of EPA’s Clean Power Plan: Mass-based or Rate-based Standard? Duan Zhang, University of California, Merced, 1392 Dynes St, Merced, CA, 95348, United States of America, dzhang8@ucmerced.edu, Yihsu Chen, Makoto Tanaka We studied the market and emission outcomes of the EPA proposed rate-based emission policy or the Clean Power Plan. A theoretical model was built to generate contestable hypothesis. A large-scale simulation of the Pennsylvania- Jersey-Maryland electricity market in 2012 was used to validate the hypotheses and quantify the magnitude of impacts, including distribution of economics rent as well as the shift of pollution emissions. We report the preliminary results in this talk. Reliability and Random Factors in Power Systems Cluster: Energy Systems: Design, Operation, Reliability and Maintenance Invited Session Chair: Bo Zeng, Assistant Professor, University of South Florida, Tampa, 4202 E. Fowler Avenue, Tampa, Fl, 33620, United States of America, bzeng@usf.edu 1 - Protect Power System from Electromagnetic Pulse Feng Pan, Research Engineer, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, P.O. Box 999 MSIN K1-85, Richland, WA, 99352, United States of America, feng.pan@pnnl.gov, Russell Bent, Aric Hagberg Power grids are vulnerable to Electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that can lead a power grid to collapse in a short time. We introduce an optimization model to configure a power grid prior to an EMP so that the damage caused by EMP is reduced. This talk will focus on the modeling aspect. 2 - Modeling Cascading Failures and Restoration Times in Power Networks to Address Resilience Sinan Tas, Assistant Professor, Penn State University-Berks College, sut12@psu.edu, Vicki Bier Prevention is generally the default solution in security investments of critical infrastructure. Electric power networks are capacity-constrained systems, which makes them a perfect candidate for cascading failure. Moreover, different components take substantially different times to recover. In this study, we will analyze investments that will possibly improve overall resilience of the network (rather than preventive ones that decreases the likelihood of such attacks). 3 - Joint Planning of Energy Storage and Transmission for Wind Energy Generation Wei Qi, PhD Candidate, University of California, Berkeley, 1117 Etcheverry Hall, Berkeley, CA, 94720, United States of America, qiwei@berkeley.edu, Yong Liang, Zuo-jun Max Shen Abstract: Regions with abundant wind energy usually have no ready access to power infrastructure. We propose models of transmission network planning with co-location of energy storage systems for wind energy delivery. Our models determine the sizes and sites of storage stations as well as the corresponding topology and capacity of the transmission network. Then we present various insights regarding storage value, technology advancements and layout robustness. TA62 62-Room 112A, CC

Verena Viskovic, PhD Student, University College London, 50 Tiber Gardens, London, N/, N10XE, United Kingdom, verena.viskovic@gmail.com, Yihsu Chen, Afzal Siddiqui

We examine the extent of carbon leakage in neighbouring jurisdictions with different carbon emissions reduction policies. We use a complementarity model to illustrate carbon leakage on a three-node power system. Subsequently, we model a 19-node Southeastern European network in order to study carbon leakage on the periphery of the EU.

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