2015 Informs Annual Meeting

TA65

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015

TA63 63-Room 112B, CC KINFORMS Sponsored Session

2 - Lessons Learned Deploying ODG Larry Neal, Independent, 3667 Cantelow Rd, Vacaville, CA, 95688, United States of America, lnealjr@wildblue.net, Frank Koch A panel of seasoned practitioners will discuss the lessons learned in deploying the concepts of Decision Quality throughout their organization, or ODQ. After brief opening remarks, the panel will discuss the learnings both positive and negative, of their experiences. The focus of this session is to help other institutions follow suit and raise the bar on their organization decision making practices. Attendees will come away with readily usable insights and tips for their own use. 3 - Applying Decision Analysis at Pfizer – Lessons Learned from the Field Rodger Thompson, Sr. Director/team Leader, Pfizer, Inc., 500 Arcola Road, Collegeville, PA, 19426, United States of America, rodger.thompson@pfizer.com This presentation will discuss the journey that the Portfolio and Decision Analysis (PDA) group at Pfizer has undertaken to bring decision excellence to the Pfizer organization. The discussion will focus on lessons learned on adapting the Dialog Decision Process to Pfizer to enable integration of the six components of decision quality.

Sponsor: KINFORMS Sponsored Session Chair: Chang Won Lee, Corresponding Author, Hanyang University, School of Business, Seoul, 133-791, Korea, Republic of, leecw@hanyang.ac.kr 1 - Study on the Supply Chain Management Critical Success Factors (csf) Chang Won Lee, Corresponding Author, Hanyang University, School of Business, Seoul, 133-791, Korea, Republic of, leecw@hanyang.ac.kr, Gary Gaukler For many companies, managing their supply chain has become increasingly central to their business success. Thus, it is crucial to investigate and identify appropriate supply chain practices for today’s business environment. We call these practices, the Critical Success Factors (CSF) for supply chain management (SCM). Appropriate measures are developed and tested with a questionnaire survey. The results of the empirical analysis confirm that SCM-CSF can be conceptualized. 2 - Retailer’s Optimal Sourcing Strategy under Consumer Stockpiling: A Risk Management Approach Jiho Yoon, Michigan State University, N468 North Business Complex, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824- 1121, United States of America, yoon@broad.msu.edu, Ram Narasimhan, Myungkyo Kim We study a retailer’s sourcing strategy under consumers’ stockpiling behavior and the factors associated with the selection of an optimal strategy in multi-tier supply chains in the presence of supply disruption risk. Stockpiling behavior occurs when consumers attempt to mitigate the negative impact of a supply shortage. Our analysis shows that optimal sourcing strategy is highly dependent on multiple factors. 3 - Relationships in Servitization, Satisfaction and Intention to Reuse: Customers’ Perspective Sang Hyung Ahn, Professor, Seoul National University, Graduate School of Business, Seoul, Korea, Republic of, shahn@snu.ac.kr, Chang Won Lee This study presents to find out a relationship among characteristics of servitization, satisfaction and intention to reuse in terms of customers’ perspective. The results were examined to identify significant factors affecting servitization, satisfaction and intention to reuse. The study provides decision- makers with more accurate information to develop appropriate servitization practices in terms of customers perspective. 4 - Industrialization, Productivity and the Shift to Services and Information Hosun Rhim, Professor Of Logistics, Service, And Operations Management, Korea University Business School, Anam-dong, The traditional explanation for the shift to services was the steady growth of manufacturing productivity. But this does not explain the initial growth in manufacturing, or that of information intensive services relative to physical services. The authors adduce a second factor that explains both trends: the relative maturity of a market. TA64 64-Room 113A, CC The Journey to Organizational Decision Quality (ODQ) Sponsor: Decision Analysis Sponsored Session Chair: Carl Spetzler, CEO, Strategic Decisions Group, 745 Emerson Street, Palo Alto, CA, 94301, United States of America, cspetzler@sdg.com 1 - Progress in the Adoption of ODQ (Organizational Decision Quality) Seongbuk-gu, 136-701, Seoul, Korea, Republic of, hrhim@korea.ac.kr, Uday Karmarkar, Kihoon Kim

TA65 65-Room 113B, CC Recent Findings and Experiences in

Probability Elicitation Sponsor: Decision Analysis Sponsored Session

Chair: Saurabh Bansal, Assistant Professor, Penn State Univrsity, 405 Business Building, University Park, PA, 16802, United States of America, sub32@psu.edu 1 - Indirect Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities through Pair-Wise Comparisons David Budescu, Professor, Fordham University, 441 E Fordham Road, 220 Dealy Hall, Bronx, NY, 10458, United States of America, budescu@fordham.edu, Han Hui Por We test a new method for eliciting subjective probabilities. Judges compare pairs of possible outcomes and identify which of the two is more likely, and by how much. These judgments generate a matrix from which the target probabilities are estimated by the geometric means. We compared the quality of our estimates with traditional direct estimates and show that they were significantly more accurate, suggesting that the new approach is a good candidate for replacing standard elicitation methods. 2 - Eliciting and Modeling Continuous Forecasts Joe Tidwell, University of Maryland, Biology/Psychology Building, College Park, United States of America, jtidwell@umd.edu Accurate forecasting models for continuous outcomes offer many benefits, including eliminating most close-call counterfactuals, better information about tail risks, and the ability to obtain forecasts for any value across the range of possible outcomes. In a series of experiments, we evaluate various methods for eliciting small sets of judgments from individual forecasters regarding real-world events and then aggregating these judgments over forecasters into continuous forecast models. 3 - Estimating Continuous Distributions by Quantifying Errors in Probability Judgments for Fixed Values Asa Palley, Duke University, The Fuqua School of Business, 100 Fuqua Drive, Box 90120, Durham, NC, 27708, United States of America, asa.palley@duke.edu, Saurabh Bansal In many managerial decision problems, the distribution for a continuous random variable must be obtained from expert judgments. Using a scale-free model of judgmental errors, we present a method for estimating distribution parameters through linear combinations of the judgments provided, where the weights are explicit functions of the expert’s errors. Finally, we demonstrate the application and benefits of our approach using data collected in an experimental study. 4 - A Turning Point Model Based on Exponential Smoothing Xiaojia Guo, University College London, Dept. of Managment and Innovation, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom, x.guo.11@ucl.ac.uk, Casey Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne We propose a turning point model that extends the damped multiplicative trend exponential smoothing model. Our model offers the ability to dynamically update the local level and the growth trend, and ultimately to predict the turning point. This dynamic turning point model can be contrasted with non-dynamic models that are popular in the literature, such as the Bass diffusion model. We fit the model to several well-studied time series and examine the model’s performance.

Carl Spetzler, CEO, Strategic Decisions Group, 745 Emerson Street, Palo Alto, CA, 94301, United States of America, cspetzler@sdg.com

To set the stage for the following speakers, this session will provide a quick review of ODQ, the ODQ maturity curve, and the progress that companies are making on the journey to ODQ. After the following speakers, we will have a panel discussion on the challenges faced by champions on the journey to ODQ and how they are best met.

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