BCO BANBURY FLYER - Q4 2017 - 2018.01.03

Brown & Co Banbury

Quarterly Agricultural Update

October – December 2017

Agricultural Business Consultancy Team

Pictures of James Jim Andrew and Leesha

COMMODITY PRICE COMPARISON BETWEEN DECEMBER 2016 AND DECEMBER 2017

PRODUCE

MEASUREMENT

DEC 2016

DEC 2017

DIFFERENCE

LAMB

P/KG/DW

392.1

402.6

10.6

BEEF

P/KG/DW

353.6

364.4

10.8

PORK

P/KG/DW

151.6

151.2

-0.4

MILK

P/L

23.2

30.3

7.1

WHEAT (FEED)

£/T

134.3

138.8

4.5

BARLEY (FEED)

£/T

114.2

121.3

7.1

OILSEED RAPE

£/T

355.7

315.0

-40.7

 Shows that the majority of sectors show an increase in price from December 2016 to 2017.

 Oilseed Rape price has seen a £40/tonne fall from 2016, due to strong yields in 2017 25%

higher than those achieved in the previous year.

 Beef and lamb prices have increased during the last year due to the continued weakness of the

Pound keeping British meat exports into Europe favourable. In addition to this, low levels of New

Zealand lamb imports into the UK has kept domestic demand high.

BEEF AND LAMB PRICE COMPARISON TO FLUCTUATIONS IN THE £/€ EXCHANGE RATE

340 350 360 370 380 390 400 410 420

1.145

1.135

1.125

1.115

1.105

1.095

1.085

£/€ EXCHANGE RATE

1.075

PENCE PER KG DEADWEIGHT

OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2017 QUARTER

BEEF

LAMB

£/€

 During the October to December period lamb price has increased by roughly 20 pence per kg,

largely due to the seasonal increases in price leading up to the end of the year.

 Overall beef price remained relatively static between 360 and 370 pence per kg.

 The exchange rate has remained stable throughout the quarter, however greater changes in the

exchange rate could have large impacts on the domestic lamb and beef price.

UK BEEF MEAT TRADE

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

TONNES OF MEAT

0

OCT

NOV

DEC

OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2017 QUARTER

EU IMPORT EU EXPORT

NON-EU IMPORT NON-EU EXPORT

 UK beef meat trade has shown a decrease from October to December 2017.

 This is likely to be due to the fact that firstly Christmas is not celebrated on the same scale

abroad and there is an increase in the domestic market beef demand leading up to

December.

UK LAMB MEAT TRADE

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

TONNES OF MEAT

JUL

AUG

SEPT

JULY TO SEPTEMBER 2017 QUARTER

EU IMPORT EU EXPORT

NON-EU IMPORT NON-EU EXPORT

 High UK domestic supply has continued to allow high volumes of British lamb meat to be exported into Europe. This is also the reason behind static EU imports.  Low non-EU exports are a result of sufficient volumes of meat outside of the EU, and high UK production costs making British meat uncompetitive on the global marketplace.

 UK farmers sell large volumes of their stock during this quarter. This high supply within the UK

means that non-EU imports during this quarter have decreased and do not exceed EU Export

tonnage.

WHEAT, BARLEY AND OSR PRICE TRENDS

145.0

335

330

140.0

325

135.0

320

130.0

315

125.0

310

120.0

305

115.0 £ PER TONNE CEREALS

£ PER TONNE OILSEEDS

300

110.0

295

05/10/2017

26/10/2017

16/11/2017

07/12/2017

28/12/2017

OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2017 QUARTER

WHEAT

BARLEY

OSR

 Global rapeseed production is projected to be higher in the 2018 compared to the 2017 harvest

year. This means that OSR price has declined leading to the end of the quarter.

 High global supply estimates for the 2017/2018 harvest has led to a static wheat market with

a slight decline in the price per tonne.

 There has been very little movement in the barley price.

POINTS TO CONSIDER – QUARTER 1 2018

Grant Application Expression of Interest Deadlines

Growth Programme – 31 st May 2018



LEADER – 2018/2019



Basic Payment Scheme – Is the 2017 payment correct?

Entitlements – Trading resumed September 2017, is there a surplus or deficit of entitlements?

Environmental Schemes – Have applications been successful? Consideration for the 2018

application window?

Woodland Grant Scheme – Creation grant application window open until 16 th February 2018.

0

Information has been gathered from the following sources: - Agriculture & Horticulture Development Board - Farmers Weekly – Prices and Trends - Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs – Farming Statistics - European Central Bank