ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

Supply Also under minimum LNG deliveries, Poland is expected to have remaining flexibility of 10.7% in 2018 and 4% in 2023 FID. With implementation of the non-FID projects, the value is expected to be above 20% in the entire CEE region.

4.1.7.3 Average Day – maximum RU

Supply mix

100 %

80

60

40

20

0

1.79

1.33

1.87

1.27

0.88

0.18

0.15

LNG

NP

DZ

LY

SGC

NO

RU

2014 FID

2018 FID

2023 FID

2018 non-FID

2023 non-FID

Figure 23: The share of supply sources in the CEE region under maximum deliveries of gas from Russia and under the average day conditions

Under maximum RU supply, the share of Russian gas in the CEE region is 80.3% in 2014, 84.5% in 2018 and 88% in 2023 in the FID case. A full implementation of the non-FID projects would lead to 83% share in 2018 and almost 100% in 2023. Such a high share in 2023 non-FID is a result of potential commissioning of large import pipeline projects, like South Stream. National production shows a contrary development with a share of 15% in 2014, decreasing to 7% in 2023. In the non-FID case, for 2018 a share of around 10% is expected. Russian gas seems to replace the decreasing share of national production. A similar behaviour can be observed in the FID case concerning the share of LNG (0.2% in 2014 to 1.8% in 2023) and Norwegian gas (4.6% in 2014 to 3.4% in 2023). In the non-FID case, Norwegian gas plays a role only in 2018 with a share of 5%. Supply The demand of the CEE region, which remains constant in all average day scenarios, can be covered in the whole CEE region. Besides Poland in the 2018 and 2023 FID-case (10.7% and 4%, respectively), all countries have left more than 20% remaining flexibility. In the non-FID cases, the remaining flexibility increases over 20% in the whole CEE region.

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GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023