Elephants In The Dust

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The model integrates data from satellite imagery as well
as land use changes from the IMAGE model, including
human population density and growth, resource abundance
and exploration, pollution, climate change and many other
additional factors (see Alkemade et al. 2009 for review and
).
Figure 1: African elephant range and population density.
The African Elephant Database is managed by the
IUCN/SSC African Elephant Specialist Group and is
a collaborative effort between conservation agencies
and researchers in African elephant range States. Infor­
mation on elephant distribution and abundance is col-
lected through field surveys and questionnaires, and
stored in the African Elephant Database. In the past,
every three to five years, the data on elephant popula-
tions and range have been assembled and presented in
an African Elephant Status Report. Four such reports
have been published and these reports are recognized
as the most reliable and authoritative data on elephant
populations in Africa. Shifting to an online interface in
2012, and including data on the Asian elephant from the
IUCN/SSC Asian Elephant Specialist Group, the African
and Asian Elephant Database will now publish annual
updates on the status of the African elephant. The on-
line database also includes the latest submissions of
data for individual elephant populations as they come
in, providing up to date information to the public at the
population level.
The African Elephant Database
Range and habitat loss are the
most significant long-term threats
to the African elephant’s survival.
For calculations of impacted range, actual estimates of the ele­
phant range were based on the distribution of the ranges classed
as “known” and “possible” (Fig. 1) (Blanc et al. 2007). To better
illustrate regional pressures, a wider area beyond the ranges
shown in Fig. 1 and 2 is given. From an ecological perspective,
the consequences of the projected habitat loss would be dire,
with serious economic implications for the countries concerned.
Currently, an estimated 29 per cent of the area defined as cur-
rent “known” and “possible” elephant range (see Blanc et al.
2007 for definition of range) is classified as heavily impacted
by human development. This may rise to 63 per cent in the next
40 years, leaving the ranges in Southern Africa mostly intact. If
this is combined with poaching, elephant ranges will likely be
greatly reduced in parts of Eastern Africa and the elephant may
be eradicated locally across parts of Central and West Africa.