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Trend in Proportion of Illegally Killed
Elephants (PIKE) in Africa
Source: CITES Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants, 2012.
Note: PIKE values for 2012 are only for the rst 6 months of the year.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Estimated PIKE
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
PIKE is an index that measures the proportion of illegally killed
elephants to the total of carcasses found. It ranges from 0.0 (no illegal
killings) to 1.0 (all carcasses found are illegally killed elephants).
Percentage
Percentage of elephants illegally
killed in Africa
*
Source: CITES Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants, 2012
* at reporting Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE) sites
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
O take sustainability limit
Healthy elephant populations have a natural annual growth
rate of between 5 and 6 per cent (Dunham 2012), or a theo-
retical maximum of 7 per cent (Hanks 1973). Thus the 7.4 per
cent estimated illegal off-take in 2011 indicates an unsustain-
able trend of elephants being killed faster than they can breed.
If this trend continues over a number of years, current poach-
ing levels will lead to significant population declines across
much of the continent.
Sub-regional overview
Central Africa has shown worrying poaching trends for some
time, and has consistently displayed the highest levels of
poaching in any sub-region since MIKE monitoring began. In
2006, PIKE levels were at 0.5, meaning that about half the
elephant carcasses encountered on patrol in MIKE sites were
reported as illegally killed. In 2011, however, PIKE levels had
risen to 0.9. This extremely high PIKE level exceeds any of
Figure 8:
The PIKE trend across Africa show a clear increase
in the proportion of illegally killed elephants from 2006 and
up to 2012.
Figure 9:
Since 2010, the percentage of elephants being killed
illegally at MIKE sites across Africa has been higher than their
natural reproduction rate.
number of definite plus probable elephant numbers in Africa
(CITES 2012a; see Blanc
et al.
2007 for further definition of
population categories).
The PIKE trends across African MIKE sites suggest an ongoing
increase in levels of poaching since 2006, with 2011 showing the
highest levels of poaching since MIKE records began in 2002
(CITES 2012a). The continental PIKE level rose from 0.24 in
2005 to 0.7 in 2011, which was higher than that of 2010 which
was at 0.6. Data from the first six months of 2012 indicate that
PIKE levels will likely be similar to 2011.
The data make it possible to estimate the percentage and
actual number of elephants being killed in MIKE sites.
In 2011, approximately 7.4 per cent of the total elephant popula-
tions in African MIKE sites were killed illegally. This is a signifi-
cant increase from 2010, when the average number of elephants
killed was estimated to be 11,500.