A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication - 2017 Global Forecast

26 / 62

26 / Cushman & Wakefield
OFFICE SECTOR
The shortage of high quality office space
in Europe’s major office markets has
intensified which is continuing to push
development activity higher, albeit still
considerably more restrained than the
peak of the last two cycles. Since 2009,
office completions have been consistently
below the 10-year historic average as
the process of deleveraging and the
unwinding of non-performing loans
restricted development finance in the
early part of the cycle. This was followed
by a risk-off investment and business
environment due to continued economic,
financial and political uncertainty in
subsequent years. The combination of
low development and moderate demand
has led to an unprecedented seven-year
period of positive and stable, yet modest,
rental growth which has gradually
improved the viability of development.
This is especially true now in a period
of sustained employment growth and
low interest rates, and so there is a
greater willingness by investors to target
higher risk opportunities. As such, office
EUROPE KEY FACTS
Slower office-based
employment growth
We expect office-based employment growth
to slow to just 1.5% per annum by 2019.
Importance of information and
communications sectors
Budapest, Dublin, Copenhagen and Madrid
are expected to have the strongest growth
rates in this sector over the next 3 years.
Stockholm, Amsterdam
and Helsinki
Less than 2.5% of stock is expected to be
completed in the majority of these markets
offering the potential for reduced vacancy
and rental growth.
Limited
rent growth
Warsaw, Sofia, Prague and Budapest
are expected to see high levels of
completions which will push vacancy
rates upwards and limit rental growth for
all but the very best space.
What
to watch
Brexit-related uncertainty is expected to
inhibit office-based job growth in the near
term, particularly attracting and retaining
European workers.
Significant rise
in completions
Over the next 3 years, development
completions are expected to increase
significantly in Istanbul, London, Brussels,
Vienna and Dublin.