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3
4
E
C ONOM IC R
E
P OR
T
2
0
1
7
5 .1 V ision 2035
It is cr ucial t
h at as m uch dom
e st ic e ne
r gy de
m and as e conom ically p ossib le is m
e
t t
h
r ough indige nous sour ce s of
Ɖroduction, Ɖroǀided they are comƉetitiǀe on ďoth cost and against other Ĩorms oĨ energy͘ As ǁell as eƋuiƉƉing
itselĨ to meet the UK͛s Ĩorecast demand, the oil and gas industry must also recognise it has a role to Ɖlay in
Ĩacilitating a smooth transition to a loǁerͲcarďon economy ;see section ϯ͘2 Ĩor more inĨormationͿ͘
To helƉ achieǀe this, the UK͛s oil and gas industry has deǀeloƉed a ǀision Ĩor the sector out to 20ϯϱ͘ sision 20ϯϱ
b
r ings t oge
t
h
e
r t
w o sce nar ios t
h at de
p
e nd on e ach ot
h
e
r and could t oge
t
h
e
r ge ne
r at
e h undr
e ds of b illions of
Ɖounds in additional reǀenue Ĩor the UK economy oǀer the nedžt 20 years͗
1Ϳ
UKCS production scenario
;see the ďlue lines in &igure 1ϴ ďeloǁͿ ʹ Ĩocuses on deliǀering an additional
three ďillion ďoe aďoǀe the ďaseline scenario, ǁhich Ɖroũects that around 7͘ϯ ďillion ďoe oĨ oil and gas ǁill ďe
p
r oduce d fr om 2016
- 35 .
2Ϳ
Supply chain scenario
;see the red lines in &igure 1ϴ ďeloǁͿ ʹ Ĩocuses on increasing the total reǀenue generated
ďy the industry͛s suƉƉly chain ďetǁeen 201ϲͲϯϱ͘ To unlocŬ this ǀalue, the suƉƉly chain must anchor and groǁ
cur
r
e nt cap ab ilit
y and e
x
p
e
r
t ise in t
h
e UK t o incr
e ase it s dom
e st ic r
e
v
e nue s w
h ile sim ult ane ously gr ow ing an
e
x
p or
t b usine ss t o b
e com
e a glob al le ade
r in m at ur
e b asin m anage
m
e nt . A ch ie
v ing t
h
e de sir
e d scale of sup
p ly
ch ain gr ow
t
h w ill se
e t
h
e UK doub le it s sh ar
e of t
h
e glob al oil and gas m ar ke
t for goods and se
r
v ice s fr om
3.7 p
e
r ce nt in 2016 t o 7 .4 p
e
r ce nt b
y 2035 .
Figure 18: Vision 2035
0
5
10
15
2 0
2
5
3 0
3
5
4 0
2 014
2 015
2 016
2 017
2 018
2 019
2 02 0
2 02 1
2 02
2
2 02
3
2 02
4
2 02
5
2 02
6
2 02
7
2 02
8
2 02
9
2 03 0
2 03 1
2 03
2
2 03
3
2 03
4
2 03
5
R ev enue/ Turnov er (
£ B illion -
2 016 Money
)
B aseline Supply Chain Turnov er f rom E
x ports
V ision Supply Chain Turnov er f rom E
x ports
B aseline Gross Production R ev enue
V ision Gross Production R ev enue
Source: OGA