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Model
Validation cohort (n=354)
Model
extension
(n=813)
Original model Recalibration
in-the-large
Recalibrated
intercept and
slope
Revision
Model parameters
Intercept
-6.089
-5.727
-4.556
-3.714
-3.303
Overall slope *
0.772
D
mean
superior PCM
0.057
0.057
0.044
0.061
0.024
D
mean
supraglottic area
0.037
0.037
0.028
-0.003
D
mean
oral cavity
0.024
Baseline dysphagia (grade 2-3
versus grade 0-1)
0.967
Model performance
C-statistic
0.74
0.74
0.74
0.77
0.81
Expected NTCP
24.7% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8% 29.8%
Observed NTCP
30.8% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8% 29.8%
Hosmer-Lemeshow test
P<0.001
P=0.019
P=0.118
P=0.368
P=0.042
Intercept
0.146
-0.134
0.000
0.000
0.120
Slope
0.772
0.772
1.000
1.000
1.090
Closed testing procedure
Indicated: Model-revision