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Economic migration, as well as
urbanization, are resulting in significant
depopulation in rural areas in some
countries, and to such an extent that some
states are seeing a significant national
decline in population. The causes of Syria's
decline are obvious, but we are also seeing
very significant population declines in
many countries in Eastern Europe, the
Caribbean and Pacific driven largely by
migration.
However, perhaps the bigger global
change and impact on economic
sustainability and real estate, is the
declining birth rate in many larger
developed countries. The extent of this
significant drop has the potential to stall
long-term global economic growth and
cause major issues in countries with low
birth rates. To be at a sustainable level
a country typically needs two children
per woman. Of the G7 economies three
countries are significantly below this level –
Germany, Italy and Japan all at 1.4. Canada
is only at 1.6 whilst the other three G7
economies do have more sustainable levels
but are in gradual decline – UK (1.9), U.S.
(1.9) and France (2.1).
The impact on the Global economy
is reinforced in table 3 which shows
population growth for G7 countries. This
shows that Japan, Germany and Italy are
all showing declining populations. Given
the strong correlation of population with
economic growth this is indeed concerning.
There are various reasons why birth-rates
drive population decline. These are widely
debated and range from cultural, economic
and social perspectives.
Syria
Cook Islands
Moldova
Saint Pierre & ...
Bulgaria
Estonia
Puerto Rico
Ukraine
Latvia
Virgin Islands
South Africa
Serbia
Montenegro
Micronesia
American-Samoa
Lithuania
Saint VIncent & ...
Romania
Slovenia
Hungary
0
2.5
5
7.5
10
Monaco
Japan
Andorra
South Korea
Singapore
Slovenia
Taiwan
Germany
San Marino
Greece
Italy
Macau
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Serbia
Romania
Hungary
Italy
Portugal
Austria
5
6
7
8
9
10
Total Population (thousands)
2015
2020
Change
World
7,324,782
7,716,749
5.35%
G7 Countries
399,349
400,819
0.37%
Canada
35, 871
37,612
4.85%
France
64,983
66,570
2.44%
Germany
82,562
81,881
-0.82%
Italy
61,142
61,386
0.40%
Japan
126,818
125,382
-1.13%
United Kingdom
63,844
65,600
2.75%
United States
325,128
337,983
3.95%
ON THE DECLINE:
OUR WORLD IN DATA
Graph 1:
Annual percentage decline in population
Graph 2:
Lowest birth rates per 1,000 people by country globally
Table 3:
Population growth 2015-20 (Source: United Nations)
The Federal Statistics Office
expects that Germany will
have 8 to 13 million fewer
inhabitants by 2060.
36 The Occupier Edge