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“So if you are a
general manager
[GM] and you want
to look at a pitcher, you want to know how that pitcher would
perform on your staff, with your relievers, and with your defense
behind you. A thirty percent swing of ERA is huge, and having
more accurate information will help you make a better decision.
It is what I called the ‘Expected ERA’ because it gives the GM
a better understanding—and it also gives the fans a better
understanding—of what is actually happening.”
11
I
ntroduction
Before analytics, managers
went with their gut when
making decisions about
pitching changes. Today,
they have a mountain of
numbers at their fingertips
to help them make the
right call.