56 / 74
56
regional experts to the
expert elicitation
1
methodology; ii) to produce an initial expert
elicitation assessment of the national or regional target areas; and iii) test the potential of
the EE methodology and process for the production of SOME reports.
The process and methodology described in this paper is largely based upon the
Australian SOME process and report developed in 2011 (State of the Environment 2011
Committee, 2011; Ward et al., 2014) and we acknowledge the authors of that report for a
significant portion of the content presented below. The experience and lessons learnt
from the pilot workshops have been used to optimize the process and the methodology to
better match the needs and challenges raised by the experts from developing states
participating in the World Ocean Assessment process and encountered during and after
the workshops and the production of the actual reports. This paper is intended to provide
background information for individuals or agencies interested in learning more about the
Marine Environment Expert Elicitation (SOME-EE) process, its advantages and
disadvantages and the steps necessary in order to complete a SOME report. It also
provides background and guidelines for experts who are intending to participate in a
SOME-EE workshop; it explains the underlying concepts and the approach followed
during the workshop so that experts can be prepared to fully participate at an optimum
level of engagement.
2. The SOME Report Production Process
The expert elicitation methodology is essentially a scientific consensus methodology,
aimed at generating an assessment of any chosen parameters by synthesising
information available in existing assessments, scientific publications and data in
conjunction with the subjective judgment of experts across a broad base of evidence
related to those parameters. The method has been applied successfully in a range of
situations, including the 2011 Australian SOME Report (State of the Environment 2011
Committee, 2011), and has the advantages that it is cost- and time-effective, it utilizes the
existing knowledge of marine experts from the target region and it can incorporate non-
conventional knowledge and information.
In the absence of comprehensive regional or national indicator datasets, the SOME-EE
process uses consultation with national and regional experts to gauge expert opinion
about the condition of the marine and coastal ecosystems and dependent socio-
economic sectors. There are commonly datasets from local areas, and there are many
sub-regional scale studies and short-term datasets about various aspects of marine
ecosystems, but these have often a too coarse resolution and are not part of a systematic
collection of data and knowledge routinely synthesised for reporting purposes. The
SOME-EE process draws upon these disparate datasets and the knowledge-base
dispersed across a broad range of sources and institutions to capture a representative
sample of existing expert knowledge about the condition of the national or regional
marine and coastal environment in a manner that can be used for reporting purposes.
The ultimate success in the production and the legitimacy of a report ensuing from an
expert elicitation process depends on the thoroughness of the steps leading to and after
the elicitation has been carried out. An ideal procedure should include the following steps
but of course this should be revised to ensure it matches the needs and constraints of the
state or region for which the report is being produced (Fig. 1):
1 Expert elicitation is the synthesis of opinions of experts on a subject where there is uncertainty due to
insufficient data.