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Figure 3. Matrix for assessment of environmental pressures and economic benefits for marine-based
industries. The optimum situation is for the combination of low environmental pressure (shown in
green) to coincide with high socioeconomic benefits. The worst situation is for the combination of
high environmental pressure (shown in red) to coincide with low socioeconomic benefits.
5. Risk assessment
The condition, pressure and socioeconomic assessment part of the assessment
methodology is backward-looking in time; it is essentially attempting to describe the state
of the marine environment relative to a benchmark and recent trends in environmental
condition manifested by changes in condition over the past 5 years. It is a statement of
the current situation of the marine environment.
In contrast, the risk assessment part of the assessment methodology is forward-looking.
Its purpose is to provide statements of the situation that the marine environment is likely
to be in if current management of human activities is not changed. It is designed to
provide policy- and decision-makers with feedback on the short-term (5 year) and long-
term (50 year) consequences of current management and to highlight specific risks that
are deemed by the workshop experts to warrant the greatest attention. It is emphasised
that the experts are instructed to only consider what is likely to occur if there are no
changes to current policies; experts are not allowed to second-guess what decisions
governments may or may not take in the future.
The risk of any event is the sum of the likelihood of the event occurring and the
consequences of the event should it occur. The likelihood and consequences associated
with a given risk will be scored on a scale from 0 to 5. The correspondence between
scores and likelihood and consequences is given in the Risks assessment section below.
As in the case of parameters selected for condition assessment, the risks assessed in the
workshop will be a combination of those which are nearly universal to all maritime nations
and others which are of particular significance to the nation or region considered in the
workshop. An example list of standard risk scenarios is as follows:
•
The risk that illegal and unreported fishing will increase