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A two-speed Europe is becoming more

and more an economic reality. As the “core”

of the Euro area – Germany, France and UK

– is turning the corner, the “peripherals” –

Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal – are

still suffering from the sovereign-debt crisis.

The German economy, the most prominent

in Europe, is recovering quite well from the

2008-2009 downturn. The ramifications of

the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis have so

far had little impact on this country. The

massive and sustained growth acceleration

since Q2-2010 has made Germany the star

performer in Western Europe. Germany’s

economy is expected to remain exceptionally

robust in 2011 compared to the economies

of France and the UK.

According to the economic research firm

Xerfi, the outlook for France is quite contrasted:

bearing a record trade deficit in Q1-2011,

France saw its industrial output falling back to

levels experienced 10 years ago. Its industry

network is slowly deteriorating, while con-

sumption is hampered by a rising inflation.

Britain’s economy saw most of its sectors

off to a strong start in Q1-2011, in particular

with regards to output in the services and

manufacturing sectors. Britain's short to

midterm growth is expected to remain mild,

as the country faced important governmental

budget tightening.

the forecast

Bombardier Business Aircraft

|

Market Forecast 2011-2030

28

Europe

Business Jet Penetration Forecast - Europe

Fleet per capita vs. GDP per capita, 1960-2030

Sources: Ascend, IMF, IHS Global Insight, UN Population Project, Bombardier forecast. Includes very light jets.

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

1,000

10,000

100,000

GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)

Fleet per 100 Million Population (Log Scale)

WESTERN

EUROPE

EASTERN EUROPE

1960

2010

Actual Western Europe

Forecast

2030

2010

Actual Eastern Europe