Market
predictions
Competition to the traditional restaurant sector
is emerging from many quarters and consumers
have never had a greater choice, especially with
prices for dining on a par with 2005.
Those who chose to eat at home were also
able to take advantage of the economies of
scale generated by supermarkets with their
‘
just like dining out’ ranges. Using promotions,
like Marks & Spencer’s ‘Eat in for £10’, diners
were spoilt for choice and supermarkets were
able to leverage their position.
Pizza delivery chains also saw improved
trade and began to boost their own in-town
high-street presence to add to their out-of-
town offerings.
Food-led pubs also took a bigger share of
the dining-out market in 2011. Placing the
emphasis on affordable family-friendly dining
and led by the behemoth M&B Toby Carvery
and Harvester brands, pub dining certainly
enjoyed a meteoric rise, to the extent where
food-led pubs outperformed and outnumbered
their traditional wet-led counterparts for the
first time.
Smaller food-led pub operators like Brunning
&
Price, part of The Restaurant Group, also
sought to capitalise 0n the growing trend.
During 2011, Christie + Co began working with
Brunning & Price to find new properties to
support the company’s plans for expansion.
The company acquired its first pub in this
>>
In an environment where the
consumer definitely became
king, and increasingly kingmaker,
restaurants generally had a year
where revenues were at best on
an equal footing, costs went up
and margins, inevitably, tightened.
The marketplace, like others, was not
conducive to great lending activity – new
developments were virtually non-existent and
transactional activity was focused on the
recycling of existing sites and distressed
sales. The deal late in the year which saw the
eight restaurants of the Chez Gérard chain
acquired by Brasserie Bar Co, operator of
Brasserie Blanc, for around £9 million was
symptomatic of this. Almost simultaneously,
Paramount Restaurants, owner of Chez
Gérard, entered administration.
London and top-end fine dining outperformed
the rest of the sector, with those restaurants
listed amongst the top-20s in the various
restaurant magazines and newspaper
supplements continuing to do well.
London, particularly, given its international
context and overseas investment will continue
to benefit from tourist and visitor spend,
although even the capital’s immune position
may be compromised after the Olympics as
peak visitor numbers are likely to drop off.
arrangement with the purchase of The Little
Manor in Thelwall, Cheshire.
The growing stature and confidence of
this sector was further indicated in M&B’s
proposals to open ‘grab and go’ Toby Carvery
outlets in shopping centre food courts,
airports, railway stations and motorway
service stations. All of which places additional
pressure on the traditional restaurant sector.
Whilst new developments were relatively
thin on the ground and transactional activity
centred chiefly on the recycling of existing
sites, there were those who took the
opportunities that this environment presented.
New market entrants realised they would
be taking a risk, but with lessees in a
strong bargaining position in terms of rent
agreements with landlords, many considered
it a risk worth taking.
A number of newcomers, encouraged by
some excellently-priced opportunities, came in
at a simpler entry point and were not seduced
into taking a fine-dining lead from the likes
of
Masterchef
or Raymond Blanc’s
The
Restaurant
.
Instead, what we saw was perhaps
the beginning of a trend which will continue
into 2012 – and that is a greater opportunity
for the local independent restaurant.
2012
01_
London will continue to benefit from
international investment
02_
London will continue to outperform the
regions though performance will level
out after the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee
celebrations and the Olympics
03_
There will be further distress and
administrations
04_
Opportunities created by business disposals
will see more independent operators
emerge, particularly in the regions
05_
New entrants will exploit simpler entry
levels and a stronger bargaining position
on rent to deliver affordable dining to
local communities
06_
Pub operators will continue the migration
towards majority food-led operations
29
