12 / 50
current market drivers
Bombardier Business Aircraft
|
Market Forecast 2011-2030
12
Basically, in most advanced economies,
output is still far below potential, while in
emerging market economies the crisis
left no lasting wounds.
The significant economic downturn of 2008-
2009 resulted in a major short-term reduction
in demand for business jets. As expected,
this demand, as measured by orders, is
increasing with the resumption of global
economic growth. This trend is expected
to translate into a sustained recovery in
demand for business jets. The sound
fundamentals of the business jet industry
are expected to remain unchanged.
Wealth Creation
Worldwide demand for business jets is
highly correlated with wealth creation. The
Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI)
Index is an aggregate stock market index,
based on representative securities listed in
major financial exchanges around the world.
The MSCI World Index is a good estimate of
wealth creation. From 2002 to 2007, the
MSCI World Index literally doubled, mainly
driven by growing prices for oil, natural
resources, and commodities. Most of these
gains were lost in a single year, as, between
2007 and 2008, the MSCI World Index fell
42%. Business aircraft orders stalled at the
same time the MSCI World Index plummeted.
North America
Europe
Latin America
Russia
India
China
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Africa
105
122
384
188
287
185
327
144
223
113
144
157
628
311
523
232
452
199
272
151
100
176
100
245
100
668
100
567
100
100
699
367
100
605
100
250
100
593
World
100
201
MSCI Index Evolution By Region
2002 = 100, Calendar years, 2002-2011
Sources: MSCI World Index from Morgan Stanley.
2002
(base)
2007
(at peak)
April
2009
April
2011
MSCI World Index
Calendar years, 2001-2010
Sources: MSCI World Index from Morgan Stanley.
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010