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35

LOSS OF CROPLAND AREA

There has been a growing trend all over the world in converting

cropland to other uses due to increasing urbanization, indus-

trialization, energy demand and population growth. China, for

example, lost more than 14.5 million ha of arable land between

1979 and 1995 (ICIMOD, 2008).

Current projections suggest that an additional 120 million ha

– an area twice the size of France or one-third that of India – will

be needed to support the traditional growth in food production

by 2030, mainly in developing countries (FAO, 2003), without

considering the compensation required for certain losses. The

demand for irrigated land is projected to increase by 56% in Sub-

Saharan Africa (from4.5 to 7 million ha), and rainfed land by 40%

(from 150 to 210million ha) in order to meet the demand, without

considering ecosystem services losses and setbacks in yields and

available cropland (FAO, 2003; 2006). Increases in available crop-

land may be possible in Latin America through the conversion of

rainforests (Figure 13), which in turnwill accelerate climate change

and biodiversity losses, causing feedback loops that may hinder

the projected increases in crop yields. The potential for increases

is more questionable in large parts of sub-Saharan Africa due to

political, socio-economic and environmental constraints. In Asia,

nearly 95% of the potential cropland has already been utilized

(FAO, 2003; 2006). Even if such increases are not restricted by

other land use and the protection of tropical rainforests, changes

in the proportion of non-food crops to food crops may have even

greater impacts on the available cropland for food production.

Area (million ha)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Industrial

countries

Transition

countries

East Asia

Sub-Saharan

Africa

South Asia

Latin America

and Caribbean

Near East

and

North Africa

Land suitable for

rainfed crops

Arable land

1997-1999

Figure 13: Theoretical potential for cropland expansion, irre-

spective of conservation, water and other environmental issues.

(Source: FAO, 2003).

The interaction among these variables is very complex, and pro-

viding quantitative estimates of their significance is nearly impos-

sible. The key variables are not currently accounted for in most

models and scenarios of food production (FAO, 2003; 2006).

In this chapter we attempt to provide estimates of possible rang-

es of future impacts of environmental degradation on yield and

available cropland, based on the best knowledge available, peer-

reviewed studies and expert judgment. We will not, however, at-

tempt to quantify the full value of ecosystem services from the

environment, which entail complex interactions and processes.

The estimates given here are of possible ranges based on some

current projections of the degree of environmental degradation.

The FAO has provided estimates of cropland and yield increas-

es necessary to meet future demand for food, without fully con-

sidering the role of environmental degradation and losses of

ecosystem services. Hence, the following material provides an

insight into the possible losses (and the compensation needed)

in food production as a result of environmental degradation, to

support other UN agencies in further improving estimates of

demand and production in a changing world.