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Botswana

1981-1984

20% of national herd

Niger

1982-1984

62% of national cattle herd

Northern Kenya

1991

28% of cattle, 18% of sheep

and goats

Namibia

1993

22% of cattle, 41% of goats

and sheep

Greater Horn of Africa

1995-1997

20% of cattle

20% of sheep and goats

Southern Ethiopia

1983-1984

45-90% of cattle

18% of sheep and goats

1991-1993

42% of cattle

1995-1997

46% of cattle

41% of sheep and goats

1998-1999

62% of cattle

Figure 22: Impacts on drought on livestock numbers in selected African countries.

(Source: IPCC, 2007).

to such events. For example, nine major droughts in selected

African countries between 1981 and 2000 resulted in an aver-

age livestock loss of 40%, with a range of 22–90% (Figure 22).

Similar effects may be observed on crop production. Based on

the extent of irrigated cropland impacted in Asia and increas-

ing water scarcity as a result of extreme weather, an annual re-

duction in the future from climate-induced water scarcity and

decreasing water tables may account for an estimated reduc-

tion of the world food production by 1.5% by 2030 and at least

5% by 2050.

Water scarcity in terms of drought or depleted groundwater

could therefore have great impacts on livestock and range-

lands. These interactions are also complex. While drought can

directly threaten livestock, other factors that influence water

availability for livestock are seasonal droughts and socio-eco-

nomic changes, such as permanent settlement and occupation

of seasonal pastures by people other than pastoralists, avail-

ability and quality of rangelands, livestock numbers and man-

agement approaches.

The combined effects of melting of glaciers, seasonal floods

and overuse of ground and surface water for industry, settle-

ments and irrigation, combined with poor water-use efficiency

are difficult to estimate. However, given that 40% of the world’s

crop yields are based on irrigation, and almost half of this from

the basins of rivers originating in the Himalayas alone, the ef-

fect of water scarcity can be substantial.