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Food security is not simply a function of production or supply, but of availability, acces-
sibility, stability of supply, affordability and the quality and safety of food. These factors
include a broad spectrum of socio-economic issues with great influence on farmers and
on the impoverished in particular.
Large shares of the world’s small-scale farmers, particularly in central Asia and in Africa,
are constrained by access to markets, while inputs, such as fertilizers and seed, are expen-
sive. With lack of irrigation water, infrastructure and investments, and low availability of
micro-finance combined with dependency on few multinational suppliers, crop produc-
tion is unlikely to increase in those regions where it is needed the most, unless major
policy changes and investments take place. These constraints are further compounded
by conflicts and corruption.
Agricultural prices are forecast to decline over the next two years but to remain well
above the levels of the first half of this decade. However, by 2030–2050, the current sce-
narios of losses and constraints due to climate change and environmental degradation
– with no policy change – suggest that production increases could fall to 0.87% towards
2030 and to 0.5% by 2030–2050. Should global agricultural productivity rise by less than
1.2% per year on average, then prices, rather than declining, can be expected to rise by as
much as 0.3% per year. In addition, a production short of demand, a greater geographi-
cal inequity in production and demand, combined with possibly more extreme weather
and subsequent speculation in food markets, could generate much greater price volatil-
ity than before. In turn, this could potentially induce a substantially greater reduction in
food security than that seen in the current crisis, if appropriate options for increasing
supply and security are not considered and implemented.
FROM SUPPLY TO FOOD
SECURITY