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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex F: Methodology
The Uncooperative Supply Source Dependence of the Zone Z to the source S is
defined as:
Page 22 of 31
1.
The availability of source S is set down to zero
2.
The availability of the other sources is not changed
3.
The cost of disruption is set flat and at the same level for each Zone
4.
Modelling of the European gas system under the whole year
The Uncooperative Supply Source Dependence of the Zone Z to the source S is defined as:
=
Where:
>
is the disrupted total gas demand
>
is the total gas demand
The lower the value of USSD, the lower the dependence.
Cooperative Supply Source Dependence (CSSD)
4.2.4.
This indicator identifies Zones where the physical supply and demand balance depends strongly
on a single supply source, when all Zones together try to minimise the shared relative impact
(the flow pattern resulting from modelling will spread the dependence as wide as possible in
order to mitigate as far as possible the dependence of the most dependent Zones).
It is calculated for each Zone vis-à-vis each source under a whole year as the succession of an
Average Summer and an Average Winter.
Where:
Page 22 of 31
The Supply Source Dependence of all Zones to source S is calculated as follows (steps 1 to 4 are
repeated for each source):
1.
The availability of sourc S is set down to zero
2.
The availability of the other sourc s is not changed
3.
The cost of disruption is set flat and at the same level for each Zone
4.
Modelling of the European gas system under the whol year
The Uncooperative Supply Source Dependence of the Zone Z to the source S is defined as:
=
Where:
>
is the disrupted total gas demand
>
is the total gas demand
The lower the value of USSD, the lower the dependence.
Coop rative Supp y Source Dependence (CSSD)
4.2.4.
This indicator identifies Zones where the physical supply and demand balance depends strongly
on a sing supply source, when all Zones together try to minimise the shared relative impact
(the flow pattern resulting from modelling will spread the depe dence as wide as possible in
order to mitigate as far as possible the dependence of the most dependent Zones).
It is calculated for each Zone vis-à-vis each source under a whole year as the succession of an
Average Summer and an Average Winter.
is t i
t t l s de and
Page 22 of 31
The Supply Source ependence of all Zones to source S is calculated as follo s (steps 1 to 4 are
rep ated for ea h source):
1.
The availability of sourc S is set do n t z ro
2.
The availability of the other sourc s is not changed
3.
The cost of disruption is set flat and at the sa e level for each Zone
4.
odelling of the European gas syste under the hole year
The ncooperative Supply Source ependence of the Zone Z to the source S is defined as:
W re:
>
is the disrupted total gas de and
>
is the total gas demand
The lo er the value of SS , the lower the dependence.
Cooperative Supply Source ep ndence (CSS )
4.2.4.
This indicator identifies Zones here the physical supply and de and balance depends strongly
on a single supply source, hen all Zones together try to ini ise the shared relative i pact
(the flo pattern resulting from odelling ill spread the dependence as ide as possible in
order to itigate as far as possible the dependence of the ost dependent Zones).
It is calculated for each Zone vis-à-vis each source under a whole year as the succession of an
Average Summer and an verage inter.
is t l
The lower the value of USSD is, the lower the dependence.
4.2.4 Cooperative Supply Source Dependence (CSSD)
This indicator identifies Zones wh re the physical supply a d demand balance de-
pends str ngly on a single upply source, when all Zones togeth r try to minimise
the h red relative i pact (t e flo patt rn resulting from modelling will spread the
dependence as wide as possibl in order to mitigate as far as possible the depend-
ence of the most dependent Zones).
It is calculated for each Zone vis-à-vis each source under a whole year as the suc-
cession of an Average Summer and an Average Winter.
The Supply Source Dependence of all Zones to source S is calculated as follow
(steps 1 to 4 are repeated for each source):
1.
The availability of source S is set down to zero
2.
The availability of the other sources is not changed
3.
The cost of disruption is escalating by step of 10% of demand with the same
price steps for each Zone
4.
Modelling of the European gas system under the whole year
The Cooperative Supply Source Dependence of the Zone Z to the source S is defined
as:
TYNDP 2017
Annex F
Assessment Methodology
The Supply Source Dependence of all Zones to source S is alculated as follow (steps 1 to 4 are
repeated for each source):
1.
The availability of source S is set down to zero
2.
The availability of the other sources is not changed
3.
The cost of disruption is escalating by step of 10% of demand with the same price steps
for each Zone. This ensures a cooperative behaviour.
4.
Modelling of the European gas system under the whole year
The Cooperative Supply Source Dependence of the Zone Z to the source S is defined as:
=
Where:
>
is the disrupted total gas demand
>
is the total gas demand
The lower the value of CSSD, the lower the dependence.
Supply Source Price Diversification (SSPDi)
4.2.5.
This indicator measures the ability of each Zone to take benefits from an alternative decrease of
the price of each supply source (such ability does not always mean that the Zone has a physical
access to the source).
For the calculation of this indicator:
the minimum supply constraint is removed for each supply source
the maximum supply constraint is removed for the studied supply source
It is calculated for each Zone under a whole year as the succession of an Average Summer and
Average Winter.
Where:
TYNDP 2017
Annex F
Assessment Methodology
Page 22 of 31
Uncooperative Supply Source Dependence (USSD)
4.2.3.
This indicator identifies Zones whose physical supply and demand balance depends strongly on
a single supply source when each Zone tries to minimise its wn dependen e (the Zones cl sest
to the consid red source are lik ly to be the more dependent).
It is calculated for each Zone vis-à-vis each source under a whole year as the succession of an
Average Summer and an Average Winter.
The Supply Source Dependence of all Zones to source S is calculated as follows (steps 1 to 4 ar
repeated for each source):
1.
The availability of source S is set down to zero
2.
The availability of the other sources is not changed
3.
The cost of disruption is set flat and at th same level for each one
4.
Modelling of th European gas system under the whol year
The Uncooperative Supply Source Dependence of the Zone Z to the source S is defined as:
=
Where:
>
is the disrupted total gas demand
>
is the total gas demand
The lower the value of USSD, the lower the dependence.
Cooperative Supply Source Dependence (CSSD)
4.2.4.
This indicator identifies Zones where the physical supply and demand balance depends strongly
on a single supply source, when all Zones together try to minimise the shared relative impact
( e flow pattern resulting from modelling will spread the dependence as wide as possible in
order to mitigate as far as possible the dependence f the most dependent Zones).
It is calculated for each Zone vis-à-vis each source under a whole year as the succession of an
Average Summer and an Average Winter.
is t i r t t l s de and
TYNDP 2017
Annex F
Assess ent ethodology
Page 22 of 31
Uncooperative Supply Source ependence ( SS )
4.2.3.
This indicator identifies Zones hose physical supply and de and balance depends strongly on
a single supply source hen each Zone tries to ini ise its o n dependence (the Zones closest
to the considered source are likely to be the ore dependent).
It is calculated for each Zone vis-à-vis ach source u der a hole year as the succession of an
v rage Su er and an verage inter.
The Supply Sourc ependence of all Zones to source S is calculated as follo s (steps 1 to 4 ar
repeated for each source):
1.
The availability of sourc S is set do n to zero
2.
The availabili y of the other sources is not changed
3.
The cost of disruption is set flat and at the sa e level for each Zone
4.
Modelling of the European gas syste under the hole year
The ncooperative Supply Source ependence of the Zone Z to the source S is defined as:
here:
>
is the disrupted total gas de and
>
is the total gas de and
The lo er the value of SS , the lo er the dependence.
Cooperative Supply Source ependence (CSS )
4.2.4.
This indicator identifies Zones here the physical supply and de and balance depends strongly
on a single supply source, hen all Zones together try to ini ise the shared relative i pact
(t e flo pattern resulting fro odelling ill spread the dependence as ide as possible in
order to itigate as far as possible the dependence f the ost dependent Zones).
It is calculated for each Zone vis-à-vis each source under a hole year as the succession of an
verage Su er and an verage inter.
is the total gas
The lower the value of CSSD is, the lower the dependence.