the forecast
Bombardier Business Aircraft
|
Market Forecast 2011-2030
35
The economy of the region has traditionally
been driven by exports of manufactured
goods, agricultural products and natural
resources, such as oil and minerals. Tourism
is also an important driver, notably for
Mexico and the Caribbean.
According to Forbes, Latin America experi-
enced a jump in its number of billionaires,
going from 36 in 2009 to 53 in 2010. Mexico
ranks above Brazil and Argentina in sales of
luxury brands in Latin America and is the
home of the world's wealthiest individual in
2011: Carlos Slim Helu. According to IHS
Global Insight, in 2011, Latin America’s
growth is predicted to be at 4.6%. Over the
20-year forecast period, the Latin American
economy is forecast to grow, on average,
by 4.3% per year.
Business aviation has a long and well-estab-
lished presence in Latin America, particularly
in Mexico and Brazil. The success of business
aviation in the region is partly due to the poor
scheduled airline service in the area. Latin
America shows a noticeably high proportion
of business jets in the Light category. In late
2010, the region had one of the oldest busi-
ness jet fleets in the world, with an average
age of 18.5 years (versus 15.7 years world-
wide). As a result, the region should account
for a significant amount of replacements.
As the forecast business jet penetration
curve shows, fleet per 100 million population
is expected to grow from 315 to 500 over
the next 20 years. Latin America is forecast
to take delivery of 2,125 business jets in the
period from 2011 to 2030, with 925 aircraft
between 2011 and 2020 and 1,200 deliveries
between 2021 and 2030. The 2010 fleet of
1,400 business jets will grow to 2,735
aircraft in 2030 resulting in a CAGR of
approximately 3%.
Latin America
(continued)
Fleet Evolution Forecast - Latin America
Fleet, Deliveries, Retirements; 2010-2030
Sources: Ascend, Bombardier forecast. Excludes Very Light Jet and Large Corporate Airline categories.
1,400
1,200
360
430
2,735
1,965
925
Fleet 2010 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2020 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2030
