the forecast
Bombardier Business Aircraft
|
Market Forecast 2011-2030
43
Japan’s situation appears fragile: after a
2010 rebound with 4.0% growth, prospects
for 2011 only amount to 1.2%, even though
reconstruction efforts will start to kick in
during the second half of this year. Many
economists expect Japan's long-term GDP
growth to be below 1% per year.
Led by the Australian economy, Oceania
grew by 2.5% during 2010. Australia is doted
of a large pool of natural resources and is
benefiting from its geographical proximity to
China and other Growth Markets. The country
has recently been dubbed "The next Golden
State" by The Economist. Over the next 20
years, Asia Pacific is predicted to grow
at 3.7% per year, according to IHS Global
Insight.
From a business aviation market stand point,
while Oceania is a typical maturing market,
the Japanese and Emerging Asia markets
remain relatively under developed.
As the forecast business jet penetration curve
shows, fleet per 100 million population is
expected to grow from 34 to 100 over the
next 20 years. Despite hurdles such as the
high handling costs across the region’s
airports, the Asia Pacific region's current
business jet fleet of 350 aircraft is expected
to grow at a CAGR of 6% over the next 20
years, and to account for 1,145 aircraft in
2030. 975 deliveries are expected in the Asia
Pacific region throughout the next 20 years,
370 aircraft between 2011 and 2020, and
605 aircraft between 2021 and 2030.
Asia Pacific
(continued)
Fleet Evolution Forecast - Asia Pacific
Fleet, Deliveries, Retirements; 2010-2030
Sources: Ascend, Bombardier forecast. Excludes Very Light Jet and Large Corporate Airline categories.
350
660
370
60
120
1,145
605
Fleet 2010 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2020 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2030
