Contractor’s Report
to CalRecycle
31
Short-Term Diversion Outlook
Table 3 summarizes expected short-term diversion trends, based on specific activities and trends
anticipated over the next two years, as identified by facility operators and other stakeholders. The
analysis indicates that the California waste tire diversion rate probably peaked in 2012, and
appears likely to decline somewhat in 2013. While exports are expected to decline in 2013, this
will likely be offset by increases in civil engineering and tire-derived fuel. Reuse is expected to
remain flat, and alternative daily cover at landfills is expected to remain flat or decline slightly.
The wild card is ground rubber, which is difficult to predict at this juncture. While some expect
increased rubberized asphalt rubber demand, and turf, mulch and molded products have all grown
in recent years, there are signs that rubberized asphalt rubber demand may not increase. It is
unclear whether imported ground rubber may impact demand for California rubber in some
segments, particularly with declining CalRecycle tire-derived product grant funds in coming
years. Overall, SAIC believes the diversion rate is most likely to dip in 2013, though it is difficult
to predict how far, and the diversion rate in 2014 will depend largely on how demand unfolds for
exports and ground rubber.
Table 3
Short-Term (Two-Year) Diversion Outlook
Category
2012 Diversion Two-Year
Diversion
Outlook
Basis for Outlook
Million
PTE
Percent
Reuse
7.3 16.3% Flat
The number of used passenger vehicle tires
that are suitable for reuse is limited and may
be approaching its upper limit.
As the economy recovers, more goods will be
shipped by truck, increasing demand for
retread truck tires. Still, retreaders expect flat
or only slightly increasing sales in 2012.
Ground
Rubber
9.8 21.7% Uncertain
RAC is increasingly accepted by local
governments and Caltrans; however, paving is
limited by budget constraints and the slow
economy.
One Caltrans district has reportedly shifted
away from RAC use.
Ground producers continue to be squeezed on
the supply side by competition with exporters
and reduced tip fee revenue, and on the
demand side by increased competition with
out-of-state producers that may have lower
prices. Some ground producers and
manufacturers said they expect business to
increase slightly in 2012.
Civil
Engineering
0.6
1.3%
Growth
Expected
Transportation (rail) projects expected in 2013
and/or 2014 will result in large increases of
TDA for that segment.
Five CalRecycle-funded landfill projects are
expected to use 21,263 tons of TDA in coming
months and years, in addition to two existing
landfills, indicating significant growth in this
segment.
