10 |
ENTSOG–GRIPSouth 2013–2022
Cove Point
10.45
Belgium
25.4
Spain
26.77
Korea
38.05
India
35.17
Lake Charles
9.5
Japan
38.05
Rio de Janeiro
40
Altamira
42.91
China
37
Bahia Blanca
42.83
UK
25.41
Spot Price
in €/MWh
(original data in $/MMBtu)
Figure 2.1:
World LNG landed prices, est. July 2013
(Source: Waterborne Energy, June 7, 2013)
Global LNG:willnewdemandandnewsupplymeannewpricing?
9
economicuncertaintymaymean thatmanyof theseproposed
hjgb][lkYj]mfdac]dqlgegn]lgÕfYd afn]kle]fl\][akagf >A<!&
DF?kmhhdqk[`]e]k af AjYf$N]f]rm]dY Õjkl km__]kl]\ afl`]
early1970s)andNigeriawill strugglewithgeopolitical and
ÕfYf[af_ akkm]k&Hjghgk]\]phYfkagfk af[gmflja]k l`YlYj]
increasinglyshortofgas fordomesticmarkets (e.g.,Trinidadand
Egypt)arealsounlikely toproceed.TheEasternMediterranean
andEastAfricaare importantnewgasprovincesandshould
supportworld-classLNGprojects.Notably, theproposedUS
andCanadianLNGexportprojectswill counterAustralia’s long-
standingpositionasapoliticallystablemajorLNGsupplier.
Dggeaf_la_`l]jeYjc]lkgn]j l`]f]pl l`j]]lgÕn]q]Yjkgj kg
km__]klkÕjeaf_[gfljY[lhja[]k$ Yl d]Yklmfladegj]f]ohjgb][lk
mov toFIDandproduction.By2025, theglobal LNGmarket
shouldh v r om fo all of theprojects thatarecurrentlyseenas
“possible.”However, unless there issubstantiallyhighergrowth in
DF?\]eYf\$ Zmad\af_Yka_faÕ[YflfmeZ]jg^ l`]Ékh][mdYlan]Ê
projects implies increasingsupply-sidecompetition.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Existing
Construction
Possible
Speculative
Demand
Million tonnesperyear
Source:EYassessmentsofdata frommultiplesources
Figure2.Global LNGcapacityanddemand
Thenewexporters—North
AmericaandEastAfrica
;mjj]flMK dYoj]imaj]kYf]phgjl da[]fk]^jgel`]MK
DepartmentofEnergy (DOE) inorder toexportLNG. Ingeneral,
exportofLNG toanation thathasa free tradeagreement (FTA)
with theUS isconsidered in thepublic interestand is typically
Yhhjgn]\oal`gmleg\aÕ[Ylagfgj\]dYq&L`]<G=`Ykegj]
latitude inmodifying the termsand/or stipulatingconditions
inconsideringapplications forexport tonon-FTAcountries.
9lhj]k]fl$ l`]MK`Yk>L9koal`)1[gmflja]k$Õn]g^o`a[`
currently importLNG (Canada,Mexico, theDominicanRepublic,
ChileandSouthKorea),withasixthcountry,Singapore, set to
have import capacity in2013.Of thecurrentFTAcountries, only
Kgml`Cgj]YYf\hgl]flaYddqKaf_Yhgj]j]hj]k]fl ka_faÕ[YflYf\
economicallyviablemarkets.
Asof lateJanuary2013,20companieshavesubmitted
applications forUSLNGexport;16of thesehavebeenapproved
forFTAcountries, butonlyoneapplication, fromCheniere’s
KYZaf]HYkkDaim]^Y[lagfDD;$ `Yk j][]an]\YhhjgnYd ^gj]phgjl
tonon-FTAcountries.Theproposedprojectsarepredominately
locatedon theGulfCoast, butalso includeproposed facilitieson
theEastandWestCoasts. Importantly, nineof theapplications,
af[dm\af_;`]fa]j]Ìk$ogmd\ZYk]]phgjlk ^jgeeg\aÕ]\$ ]paklaf_
DF?aehgjl ^Y[adala]k&L`]k]ÉZjgofÕ]d\Ê]phgjlhjgb][lkogmd\
dac]dq]fbgqka_faÕ[Yfl [gklY\nYflY_]k ^jgel`]]paklaf_ af%hdY[]
infrastructure (particularlyutilities, storageandport facilities),
af[gehYjakgfoal`gl`]j É_j]]fÕ]d\Êhjgb][lk$oal`gml km[`
af^jYkljm[lmj]Ydj]Y\q afhdY[]&;YhalYd [gklk ^gjMKZjgofÕ]d\
LNGprojectsarebroadlyestimated tobebetweenUS$550million
andUS$650millionpermtpaof capacity, substantially less than
lqha[Yd _j]]fÕ]d\hjgb][lk&
2
More than200mtpaofUSLNGexport capacityhasbeen
proposed,whichcould translate intomore than28bcf/dofgas
exports.However, themarket isunlikely toneedanywherenear
thatamount,withglobal LNGdemand in2012at justover
*EY[imYja]=imalqJ]k]Yj[`$
Global LNGOutlook
,10September2012
Figure 2.2:
Global LNG capacity and demand inmillion tons per annum
(Source: Ernst&Young assessments of data frommultiple sources)
2.1 Worldwide context
The growing energy demand in Asia, enhanced by the nuclear accident of the 11
March2011 inFukushima, Japan, thenewcheapshalegas in theUnitedStatesand
thedecreaseonconsumption inEuropedue to theeconomical crisis, havechanged
theglobal gasmarket creatingbigdifferencesbetweengasprices all over theworld.
Asshown inFigure2.1, theestimatedLNGpricesbyJuly2013goes from9.5€/MWh
in theUnited States to 38€/MWh in Japan andKorea, reaching almost 43€/MWh
incertaincountries of LatinAmericaandbeingnear 26€/MWh in theSouth-west of
Europe.
This rupture in LNG prices is
expe ted to remain as long as
the development of new LNG Re-
ceiving T rmin l , mainly in Asia,
will increase more significantly
t an the new supplies expected,
mainly from Australia, Africa and
theUnited States.
