ENTSOG–GRIPSouth 2013–2022 |
21
France
Portugal
Spain
TYNDP 2013–2022
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
0
600
450
750
300
150
900
TWh/y
by country
Figure 3.13:
Yearly conventional demand by country –
TYNDP 2013–2022 vs. GRIPs. France, Portugal, Spain and
the South Region
EU gas consumption
EU coal consumption
US gas consumption
US coal consumption
1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
0
600
500
200
100
400
300
700
Mt
Figure 3.14:
EU–USA gas coal correlation (inmillion tonnes
oil equivalent)
\\
In the case of Portugal, the differences between
the current demand scenarios and thosepresent-
ed in the TYNDP 2013–2022 are not significant
inbothconventional andpower generation sector.
In the Conventional sector, the current scenarios
are slightly higher because of CHP. In this partic-
ular case new information about the specific con-
sumption of cogenerations equipment has led to
anupward revision in demand scenarios.
Gas for power generation
Gas consumption for power generation has slowed down significantly in the South
region for the second half of 2011.
There are some factors that affect the whole South Region that explain the signifi-
cant drop of natural gas consumption for power generation:
1. LNGworld prices:
The increase of LNG demand in the world causing high LNG prices, had also driv-
en changes in the electricity generation. For example, shippers, operating in both
electricity andgasmarkets andoptimizing their global benefit, are reducing thegas-
fired power plants production in Spain favouring alternatives fuels.
2. Increase of coal generation, due to several factors:
\\
Lower cost of generation with coal than with gas:
The production of shale gas in theUS is skyrock-
eting. Supply and demandbalance of natural gas
is eased significantly and the price sagged to
one quarter of the last highest level recorded four
years ago.Wider use of natural gas inpower gen-
eration has been seen due to the drop in natural
gas price. So substitution between natural gas
and coal becomes significant when relative price
of natural gas to coal is lower than a certain level.
Under the current situation, the impact of shale
gas revolution, the surplus coal substituted
by natural gas in the US, is exported to Europe,
that has increased coal power generation due
to low coal price ledby imported coal of US origin
and low CO ² price. Strong correlation between
coal-gas in US and EU can be appreciated in
Figure 3.14.
\\
Carbon dioxide emission price: CO ² prices has
fallen down to the lowest ever, mainly due to the
decrease of the industry, which benefits coal
production in Europe as well.
