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back to table of contentsErhardt’s Tampa Bay Land Market Overview | Quarterly Report Q1 - 2017
Demand and Supply
•
Axiometrics forecasts Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater, Florida Metro Area’s job growth to be 2.4% in 2017, with 30,538 jobs added.
Job growth is expected to average 2.1% from 2018 to 2020, with an average of 27,830 jobs added each year.
•
On the supply side, permits for 5,526 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in September 2016, down 518 units from the
prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 16,646 units were permitted in the 12 months ending September 2016, an increase
of 1,363 units from the prior year’s total.
Submarket Delivery Schedule
Sequential
Month
Annual
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 FEB-17 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Effective Rent Per Unit
$1,075
$1,100 $1,116
$1,109 $1,110 $981
$1,041
$1,100 $1,138 $1,166 $1,202 $1,248
Per Square Foot
$1.14
$1.17
$1.19
$1.18
$1.18 $1.04 $1.11
$1.17 $1.21
$1.24 $1.28 $1.33
Effective Rent Growth
– Annually
6.6% 6.5% 5.7% 4.0% 3.2% 3.3% 6.1% 5.7% 3.4% 2.5% 3.2% 3.8%
Effective Rent Growth
– Quarterly
0.9% 2.3% 1.5% -0.7%
Occupancy Rate
95.5% 95.5% 95.4% 94.7% 94.8% 94.8% 95.4% 95.3% 94.8% 94.6% 95.0% 95.3%
Occupancy Change
– Annually
0.4% 0.0% -0.3% -0.9% -0.6% 0.6% 0.7% -0.2% -0.5% -0.2% 0.4% 0.3%
Occupancy Change
– Quarterly
-0.1% -0.1% 0.1% -0.1%
Economic Concessions
Concession Value
$-4.54 $-3.60 $-3.25
$-6.45 $-6.20 $-8.64 $-3.74
As a % of Asking Rent
-0.4% -0.3% -0.3% -0.6% -0.6% -0.9% -0.4%
Annual
Q3-2016
Annual Forecast
2013
2014 2015 MARKET NATIONAL 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Total Units Absorbed
3,652
6,670 5,634
1,738
263,077
1,738
5,464
3,517
5,461
4,047
New Supply
3,717
4,012
3,987
4,704
347,761
4,704
5,416
4,746
4,026
3,204
Inventory Growth
1.2%
1.3% 1.3%
1.3%
1.4%
1.5%
1.7% 1.5%
1.2%
1.0%
Pipeline Delivery Schedule
Pipeline Lease Up Trent
Sequential
Units Absorbed
Asking Rent
Effective Rent
Top Submarkets
2014 2015 2016 TOTAL TOTALS PPM PER UNIT PSF PER UNIT PSF
Central St. Petersburg
375
260
474
1,109
273
16
$2,248
$2.31
$2,206
$2.26
Central Tampa
1,206
768
822
2,796
695
12
$1,867
$1.96
$1,785
$1.88
North St. Petersburg
651
278
929
286
15
$1,551
$1.44
$1,499
$1.39
Pasco County
421
419
396
1,236
301
14
$1,306
$1.22
$1,301
$1.22
South Hillsborough
County
260
250
510
242
17
$1,435
$1.43
$1,425
$1.42
Other
1,544
1,836
932
4,312
843
12
$1,318
$1.37
$1,275
$1.33
Tampa-St. Petersburg-
Clearwater, FL
4,197
3,543
3,152
10,892
2,640
13
$1,596
$1.63
$1,548
$1.58
*Based on 2016 deliveries
*Trend Based on trailing 12 month period
TAMPA BAY MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
AxioMetrics, Inc. Market Performance Summary, Q3-2016,
Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater, Florida Metropolitan
Statistical Area
Apartment Performance
•
Effective rent increased 1.5% from $1,110 in Q2-2016 to $1,126 in Q3-2016, which resulted
in an annual growth rate of 5.6%. Annual effective rent growth is forecast to be 3.3% in
2017, and average 3.1% from 2018 to 2020. Annual effective rent growth has averaged 2.6% since Q3-1996.
•
The market’s occupancy rate decreased from 95.5% in Q2-2016 to 95.4% in Q3-2016, and was down from 95.7% a year ago. The market’s
occupancy rate was above the national average of 95.1% in Q3-2016. For the forecast period, the market’s occupancy rate is expected to
be 95.0% in 2017, and average 95.0% from 2018 to 2020. The market’s occupancy rate has averaged 93.9% since Q3-1995.