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Number of events
per year
Source:
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
200
150
100
50
0
1900
1980
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2000
1920 1940 1960
Cyclones
Floods
Earthquakes
Earthquakes
All disasters
All disasters include:
drought,
earthquake, extreme
temperatures,
famine, flood, insect
infestation, slides,
volcanic eruption,
wave / surge, wild
fires, wind storm.
Much of the increase in the number of
hazardous events reported is probably due
to significant improvements in information
access and also to population growth, but
the number of floods and cyclones being
reported is still rising compared to
earthquakes. How, we must ask, is global
warming affecting the frequency of natural
hazards?
Earthquakes
versus climatic disasters
Trends in number
of reported events
Changes to Coconut Beach (Dominica)
after the 1995 hurricane season
Changes to C co ut Beach (Dominica)
after the 1995 hurricane season
Source: Dominica National Communication to the UNFCCC 2001.
Figure 12. The number of reported ex-
treme climatic based disasters is increas-
ing dramatically worldwide (IPCC, 2006).
While part of this increase in the number
of weather related disasters, as claimed
by some, may be due to better reporting
mechanisms and communication, similar
increases in reports has not taken place
in relation to other types of disasters like
the number of reported earthquakes.
Figure 13. During a period between May
1994 to September 1995 the profile of
Coconut Beach dramatically changed as
a result of storm surges washing away
the sand.
A rising sea level in the future,
combined with more storms, will wash
away vulnerable beaches. With the sand
gone, the coast is more vulnerable to
waves going further inland, threatening
fresh water wells with salinisation, lead-
ing to land erosion, andmaking the areas
less attractive for tourism. When a beach
starts to deteriorate, the process can be
amazingly quick. It is very likely that the
20th century warming has contributed
significantly to the observed rise in glob-
al average sea level and the increase in
ocean heat content. Warming drives sea
level rise through thermal expansion of
seawater and widespread loss of land-
based ice. Based on tide gauge records,
after correcting for land movements, the
average annual rise was between 1 and 2
mm during the 20th century.