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4.1
Water availability is a dynamic factor in food security
Achieving food security without a stable and
predictable water supply is not possible. The Hindu
Kush Himalayas – the water towers of Asia – provide
water for agriculture, electricity generation, industry,
and basic household needs for over one billion people
downstream. Yet water scenarios for the HKH warn
that under a warming climate, the water supply from
the Hindu Kush Himalayan glaciers is becoming less
reliable. In the near term, these glaciers are expected
to release more water than usual, then diminish
gradually over the longer term to significantly
reduced volumes (Immerzeel
et al.
2010; Douglas
2009; Krishna 2005). Although there will be variation
to this pattern across the HKH region, overall,
increasing demand and poor water management are
expected to pose serious challenges throughout the
region (Hijioka et al. 2014).
HICAP studies indicate that there will be no significant
changes in water availability in the Salween, Mekong,
Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Indus Rivers until 2050
(Lutz and Immerzeel 2013). It is thought, however,
that climate change impacts will be felt more quickly
in the Indus River as glacial melt plays a much larger
role in the flow of this river (44.8%) than the others
(Immerzeel
et al.
2010; Kaser
et al
. 2010).
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report projects rising
temperatures, high rainfall variability, and increases
in extreme weather events for Asia which are likely to
