44
The FAO estimates that global food produc-
tion must increase by 70% by 2050 to meet the
demands of more than 9 billion people (FAO
2009). The majority of these people will live in
Asia, adding increased demand for water and
energy into the calculation. The Hindu Kush
Himalayan mountain systems provide ecosystem
services for agriculture and supply water and
energy to downstream areas in the HKH coun-
tries. There are strong linkages between food,
water, and energy security. Water is needed for
agricultural production but also to generate
energy through hydropower. Energy is needed for
agriculture, food processing, storage, and trans-
port, as well as for water treatment and wastewater
disposal. The demand for all three is increasing
as a result of growing populations, industrializa-
tion, urbanization, and economic growth in the
HKH. Agricultural intensification has led to a
Golam Rasul, ICIMOD
(based on Rasul 2012)
great dependency on water and energy so that
energy prices also affect food prices (transport,
irrigation, fertilizer, processing, and marketing.
Overall, productivity needs to be increased on the
amount of currently cultivated land.
Watershed management and the protection of
forests, wetlands, and rangelands are crucial
in sustaining ecosystem services and ensuring
their resilience. This includes restoring natural
water storage capacity, and providing incentives
for mountain communities to manage water-
sheds, wetlands, and biodiversity in a sustainable
manner. Adopting sustainable agricultural prac-
tices, including good water management and ener-
gy-saving technologies, will also contribute to the
conservation of ecosystems and watersheds. All
of these measures will be necessary for improved
food security in the region.
Food, water, and energy security in the Hindu Kush
Himalayas needs a nexus approach
result in declining agricultural productivity, especially
of cereals (Hijioka
et al.
2014). Agriculture in the
HKH will be particularly affected by changes in water
supply. Food production will be disrupted by variation
in monsoon onset and duration, and frequency
of floods and droughts (Douglas 2009). There is,
however, still a lack of sufficient and accurate data for
assessments in the HKH mountain region because
hydro-meteorological data for historical time series is
scarce and high-elevation weather stations are few.
The HKH region is heavily influenced by the
southwest monsoon during summer and westerly
disturbances in winter. This is a region where the
majority of the population depends on rain for
agriculture, and the pre-monsoon and monsoon
account for 88% of the rainfall (Bookhagen and
Burbank 2010). Precipitation varies from 3000 mm
in the Eastern Himalayas to 100 mm in the southern
plain desert on the Western side. The Brahmaputra
and Ganges Rivers rely on monsoons and glaciers,
whereas the Indus River depends much more on
melting of snow and glaciers (Rajbhandari
et al.
2013). Historical analysis (1951–2007) shows that
the wettest years were recorded in the 1950s, while
the last decade was the driest, indicating a trend of
drought (Shrestha 2012). Apart from some positive
increases in precipitation over the east Himalayan
belt, intensity and quantity decreases, especially on
the southern slope/central part of the HKH. For
temperature, annual statistics show a warming
trend: minimum winter temperatures are increasing
as are extremes in maximum temperatures,
especially in higher altitudes (Shrestha 2012).
“Floods, droughts, and rainfall
patterns are expected to
negatively impact crop yields,
food security, and livelihoods
in vulnerable areas.”
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Hijioka et al. 2014)
