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53.10
52.10
51.10
50.10
49.10
48.10
47.10
46.10
13.50
14.50
14.00
15.00
15.50
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
High probability
Low probability
2.5 and 97.5 percentiles
50 percentile (median)
South – LNG Min
Wobbe Index (kWh/m
3
, 25/0)
Wobbe Index (kWh/m
3
, 15/15)
GAS QUALITY
Impact analysis of a reference to the EN16726:2015 in
the network code on Interoperability and Data Exchange
ENTSOG published the detailed
impact analysis
as re-
quested by EC and recommended not to amend the Inter-
operability network code. This conclusion is consistent with
the announcement of EC at Madrid Forum on the 7 October
2016.
The analysis has shown that a whole EU chain implementa-
tion of the EN16726, despite providing certainty on the
rules and removing any contracting difficulties, would face
significant legal barriers and produce widespread negative
impacts across segments and Member States.
According to stakeholder input to the process, security of
supply would be compromised by a reduced access to ex-
isting or new sources and supply routes whose qualities are
accepted today but would be rejected if the standard is ap-
plied (e. g. 20% of UK supplies in 2015 due to the
CO ²
and
O ²
limits). Sustainability and competitiveness could be also
unintendedly impaired.
In this process as well as in the monitoring of the INT NC,
as of today, no evidence of cross-border trade restrictions in
normal conditions has been revealed. An amendment of the
network code to include a reference to EN16726:2015 –
even as an optional tool – is not deemed necessary.
Public consultations – both among the most responded in
ENTSOG’s record – have shown that any voluntary national
application of the standard should carefully examine impli-
cations for the whole chain, including cross-border effects,
and consider higher flexibility for specific requirements at
entry and exit points.
First long-term gas quality monitoring outlook alongside
TYNDP 2017
Article 18 of the Interoperability Network Code requires
ENTSOG to publish, alongside TYNDP, a long-term gas
quality monitoring outlook for transmission systems in order
to identify the potential trends of gas quality parameters –
namely WI and GCV – and respective potential variability
within the next 10 years. TYNDP 2017 is the first edition in-
corporating the Gas Quality Outlook
The WI and GCV ranges in the outlook depend more strong-
ly on regions than on any other factor and seem to remain
relatively stable for the next ten years. Trends seem to be in
general not very sensitive to different price configurations.
However, within one region, ranges may actually differ de-
pending on the influence of different sources: LNG rising
the higher limit and indigenous production the lower.
Collaboration with CEN standardisation work on Wobbe
Index
ENTSOG continued supporting the standardisation work be-
ing carried out by CEN to find a European agreement on
Wobbe Index. A definition of this parameter (including pos-
sible regional bands) is key for safety and necessary for
completing the gas quality standard. ENTSOG has joined
the relevant CEN working groups and will contribute with its
expertise to achieving the common target.
Example gas quality
outlook graph
ENTSOG Annual Report 2016 |
41