32 |
Southern Corridor GRIP 2014–2023
0
800
400
2009
2010
2011
2012
200
600
1,600
1,400
1,000
1,200
TWh/y
RCI
Power generation
27.16%
72.84%
26.78%
24.65%
73.22%
75.35%
26.72%
73.28%
+6.94%
+4.82%
+6.34%
-3.70%
-3.37%
-3.61%
-0.26%
-12.11%
-3.18%
Figure 3.3:
Evolution of Southern Corridor yearly demand in
the period 2009 – 2012 and its breakdown
3.2 Annual Demand Breakdown
Figure 3.3 shows the annual demand breakdown of the Southern Corridor Region
for the last four years together with their percentage evolution. The chart is broken
down into Residential, Commercial and Industrial (RCI) demand compared to Pow-
er Generation demand. We may see the result of the economic conditions applying
these last years on the gas-fired power generation sector. On one hand cheap coal
combined with low carbon prices from the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) have
made it recently attractive to burn coal instead of gas. On the other hand the pro-
gression of the use of renewable energy sources has decreased the use of gas in
power generation.
The historical data in figures 3.4 and 3.5 illustrate, that annual temperatures and
economic downturn also heavily influence gas demand. This is due to the high per-
centage of households (in most countries) that rely on gas for heating, as demand
increases when outdoor temperatures decrease. Since annual weather conditions
cannot be forecasted, such extremes are not included in annual demand forecasts.
In the same way, economic growth rates can only be reasonably assumed during
forecasting, without the possibility to anticipate negative or positive unexpected
shocks. This should be borne in mind when comparing actual data and forecasts.
Figure 3.4 shows a quite significant increment in Power Generation demand over
the next ten years. It is important to stress the considerable amount of uncertainty
around the Power Generation figures. Power Generation is market based and is
heavily influenced by fuel prices and by incentives provided to renewable sources.
