Vital Climate Graphics - Update

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

14

Emissions continue to increase

Since pre-industrial times, the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases has grown sig- nificantly. Carbon dioxide concentration has increased by about 31%, methane concentration by about 150%, and nitrous oxide concentration by about 16% (Watson et al 2001). The present level of carbon dioxide concentration (around 375 parts per million) is the highest for 420,000 years, and probably the highest for the past 20 million years.

Emissions reporting Central to any study of climate change is the development of an emissions inventory that identifies and quanti- fies a country’s primary anthropogenic sources and sinks of greenhouse gas. The IPCC has prepared guidelines for compiling national inventories. The major greenhouse gases are included within six sectors: Energy; Industrial Processes; Solvent and Other Product Use; Agriculture; Land Use Change and Forestry; and Waste. Emissions are not usually monitored directly, but are generally estimated using models. Some emissions can be calculated with only limited accuracy. Emissions from energy and industrial processes are the most reliable (using energy consumption statistics and in- dustrial point sources). Some agricul- tural emissions, such as methane and

nitrous oxide carry major uncertainties because they are generated through biological processes that can be quite variable. Contributing to emissions Historically the developed countries of the world have emitted most of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The U.S. emits most in total, and is one of the countries with highest emissions per capita. China is the second largest emitter, but has very low emissions per capita. Over the last 20 years, indus- trial development has led to a rapid rise in the volume of emissions from Asia, but on a per capita basis, emissions in this region are still at the bottom of the global scale.

Billion tonnes

8

Asia and Oceania

CO 2 emissions from consumption and flaring of fossil fuels

7

North America

6

5

Western Europe

4

3

Direct measurements

Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union

Ice core data

Projections

1,000 ppm

2

Middle East

Scenarios

A1B A1T A1FI

1

900

Africa

Latin America

A2 B1 B2 IS92a

Source : EIA, 2002.

0

800

1985

1980

1990 1995 2000

700

600

500

P ast and future CO 2 atmospheric concentrations

400

375

300

300

200

200

100

100

0

0

2100

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000