Vital Climate Graphics - Update

IMPACT AND VULNERABILITY

18

Adaptation and mitigation

When we are talk about climate change in our modern setting, we refer to changes brought about by industrialisation as seen in the increased use of energy sources that emit harmful gases into the atmosphere. These gases have a warming effect that effects climate patterns.

In Africa this has lead to shifts in rain patterns over the years. African communities are more vulnerable to changes in rainfall and other aspects of climate. Most activities and planning are tied to the seasons. The fact that climate change has resulted in unpredictable seasons has resulted in crop failures. Africa’s development is mostly linked to rain-fed agriculture as opposed to irrigation. Rural communities have relied on predictable rainfall patterns for their crops, and whole economies are driven by this activity. Changes in rainfall patterns have implications for other aspects of life, including health. Unexpected flooding gives rise to parasites in the water that may in turn cause epidemics like cholera. When the highlands get warmer mosquitoes are able to survive, and they conquer these areas too. The consequence is the spread of malaria. Studies have also shown that the glaciers of Mount Kilimanjaro and Mount Kenya are greatly reduced. Yet it is well known that these glaciers are the

Climate Change Vulnerability in Africa

Egypt/Cairo/The Nile: Coastal areas threatened by sea-level rise; Nile river basin sensitive to climate, with regional implications

North Atlantic Oscillation a key factor in international climate vulnerability, with impact on fisheries industries

North Africa

Horn of Africa heavily affectted by recurrent droughts

Important commercial agriculture adapted to bimodal rainfall; shifts in rainfall patterns would have far- reaching impacts

Rainfall variability modulated by vegetation dynamics, surface properties in the Sahel; empirical evidence of species changes

West Africa

Central Africa

East Africa

High proportion of population concentrated in coastal areas in West African cities such as Lagos and Banjul, thus especially vulnerable to sea-level rise

East African Great Lakes and reservoirs respond to climate variability with pronounced changes in storage

Regional climate modeling experiments show deforestation in Central Africa will impact climate in distant south (teleconnections)

Southern Africa

Coastal marine fishery likely to be negatively affected by changes in Bangwuela current

Western Indian Ocean Islands

Long-lasting impacts of drought on national economies for SADC region

Floods in 1999 severely affected coastal population and infrastructure, with long- lasting economic and development impacts; adaptation and recovery very costly and beyond the means of African countries

Complete loss or displacement of Succulent Karoo biome projected under climate change, and many species losses in other biomes

The vulnerabilities

Desertification

Deforestation

Sea level rise

Loss of forest quality

Intensity of extreme events increased significantly over South Africa; biome shifts will favor horticulture over plantation forestry; malaria risk areas projected to expand southward

Reduced freshwater availability

Spreadof malaria

Degradation of woodlands

Impacts on food security

Cyclones

Coral bleaching

Coastal erosion

Sources:AnnaBallance,2002.

CLIMATE CHANGE

CLIMATE CHANGE Including Variability

Human Interference

Sensitivity, Adaptability, and Vulnerability

Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli. Climate-related stimuli encompass all the elements of climate change, including mean climate characteristics, climate variability, and the frequency and magnitude of extremes. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise). Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change, including climate variability and extremes, to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is suscep- tible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulner- ability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

Exposure

MITIGATION of Climate Change via GHG Sources and Sinks

Initial Impacts or Effects

Autonomous Adaptations

IMPACTS

Planned ADAPTATION to the Impacts and Vulnerabilities

VULNERABILITIES

Residual or Net Impacts

Policy Responses