MR2020_skabelon_omslag og design_v04

2020

COPENHAG EN PROPE RT Y MAR K E T R E PORT

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Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

The headline in English Overskrift på dansk

2020

Despite financial market volatility and fears of slowing global growth, the Danish commercial property market is still going strong: In 2018, capital growth exceeded 4% in the Greater Copenhagen investment property market, and domestic and international property investors continue to show a healthy appe- tite for investments, in the office and industrial/logistics markets in particular. The residential market remains attractive, too, although the volume of new developments coming to the market has put a slight downward pressure on rents as well as slowed forward purchases. Short-term interest rates continue to be negative, with property financing available at extremely low rates via the highly efficient Danish mortgage financing system. Property transaction activity slowed in 2018, with the total volume of transactions falling 20% short of the record-breaking level of 2017, mainly due to a shortage of adequately priced prod- ucts. Still, 2018 comes in second in history in terms of national transaction volumes. This 2019 market report by Colliers International offers an over- view of key economic trends and of the Copenhagen commercial property market, including occupational and investment market.

Despite financial market volatility and fears of slowing global growth, the Danish commercial property market is still going strong: In 2018, capital growth exceeded 4% in the Greater Copenhagen investment property market, and domestic and international property investors continue to show a healthy appe- tite for investments, in the office and industrial/logistics markets in particular. The residential market remains attractive, too, although the volume of new developments coming to the market has put a slight downward pressure on rents as well as slowed forward purchases. Short-term interest rates continue to be negative, with property financing available at extremely low rates via the highly efficient Danish mortgage financing system. Property transaction activity slowed in 2018, with the total volume of transactions falling 20% short of the record-breaking level of 2017, mainly due to a shortage of adequately priced prod- ucts. Still, 2018 comes in second in history in terms of national transaction volumes. This 2019 market report by Colliers International offers an over- view of key economic trends and of the Copenhagen commercial property market, including occupational and investment market.

Copenhagen, February 2020

Peter Winther, Partner and CEO (MRICS) peter.winther@colliers.com

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Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

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Summary Property price index. Commercial property prices approaching pre-crisis Investing in Denmark . Sound fundamentals and superior framework conditions Office. Strongest office market since the crisis Residential. Liquid market challenged by high price expectationsHotel

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OFFICE HOTEL RETAIL INDUSTRIAL REGIONS RESIDENTIAL

20 38 56 74 92 112 116 120 124 128 129 130

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Hotel. Lorem ipsum about hotels Retail. F&B and tourist hotspot Industrial & logistics. A thriving market segment

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Aarhus brief Odense brief Aalborg brief Triangle Region in brief Market practises Definitions About Colliers International

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Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

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2019 summary of the year 2019 oversigt over året

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Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

The headline in English

Overskrift på dansk

PROPERTY PRICE INDEX

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Sustained uptrend in Greater Copenhagen commercial property prices documented by six consecutive years of capital gains 8.9% Total average return on commercial property in 2018 15 bps Commercial property sector income return requirement compression in 2018

In real terms, Copenhagen commercial property prices remain below 2007-level

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De ated values

Note: Colliers International property price index (index 100 = Q3 1984). Source: Colliers International

https://helpx.adobe.com/dk/illustrator/using/graphs.html#enter-graph-data

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Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

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Stet clita kasd gubergren UK

Stet clita kasd gubergren UK

Stet clita kasd gubergren DK

Sustained uptrend in Greater Copenhagen commercial property prices documented by six consecutive years of capital gains 8.9% Total average return on commercial property in 2018 15 bps Commercial property sector income return requirement compression in 2018

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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea taki- mata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, conse- tetur sadipscing elitr. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea taki- mata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, conse- tetur sadipscing elitr. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadip- scing elitr.

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Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

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Stet clita kasd gubergren UK

Stet clita kasd gubergren UK

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Sustained uptrend in Greater Copenhagen commercial property prices documented by six consecutive years of capital gains 8.9% Total average return on commercial property in 2018 15 bps Commercial property sector income return requirement compression in 2018

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Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

Stet clita kasd gubergren UK

Sustained uptrend in Greater Copenhagen commercial property prices documented by six consecutive years of capital gains 8.9% Total average return on commercial property in 2018 15 bps Commercial property sector income return requirement compression in 2018

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INVESTING IN DENMARK

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Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

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Stet clita kasd gubergren UK

Danish unemployment rate at structural low

Danish inflation edging up

Sustained uptrend in Greater Copenhagen commercial property prices documented by six consecutive years of capital gains 8.9% Total average return on commercial property in 2018 15 bps Commercial property sector income return requirement compression in 2018

10% 12% 14%

4%

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadip- scing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadip- scing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr.por invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadip- scing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadip- scing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr. Stet clita kasd gubergren DK

3%

2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

1%

0%

-1%

10

13 12 11

14

15

16

17

E18

E19

10

13 12 11

14

15

16

17

E18

E19

Denmark

Eurozone

Denmark

Eurozone

Sources: Statistics Denmark, Eurostat and Danske Bank

Sources: Eurostat and Danske Bank

Historically low interest rates

2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

-2% -1% 0% 1%

Grafik

10 09

13 12 11

14

15

16

17

18

Eurozone (3M) Denmark (3M)

Eurozone (10-year gov. bond) Denmark (10-year gov. bond)

Note: Short-term interest rates (3M) and 10-year government bonds. Sources: Eurostat, ECB and Nasdaqomxnordic

Falck-Huset, CBD

Macroeconomic key indicators: Continued upturn in Danish economy

Consumer spending 1

Public debt 3

10-year swap yield 4

Year

GDP 1 Unemployment 2

Exports 1

Inflation 1

Grafik

Denmark 2018

1.0

4.0 3.9 3.8 8.2 7.8 7.5

2.4

0.2 2.7 2.0

0.8

33.5

0.90

2019 2020

2.0

1.9

1.3 1.6

33.1

1.55

1.6

2.3

33.2

na

Eurozone 2018

1.9 1.6 1.5

1.3 1.7 1.6

2.7 2.5 2.7

1.8 1.8 1.6

86.9 84.9 82.8

0.75 1.00

2019 2020

na

1 Growth (% y/y), 2 % of workforce, 3 % of GDP, 4 End-year. Sources: Danske Bank and Eurostat

19

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

18

Stet clita kasd gubergren UK

TRANSACTION VOLUME: The decline in transaction volume is not due to lack of investor demand but rather a mismatch between sell-side and buy-side price expectations.

Core assets head the field

Slight decline in transaction volume despite capital abundance

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

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0 10

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

3% Opportunistic 5% User 32% Value-add 60% Core

Greater Copenhagen

Rest of Denmark

Note: Transaction volume, Denmark (DKK billion). Source: Colliers International

Note: Breakdown of transaction volume by investment type. Rounded figures. Transaction volume, Denmark. Source: Colliers International

Prime investment yields, high-street retail

Both Copenhagen and Aarhus offer competitive returns compared to other European cities.

Residential assets remain the most coveted

Oslo 4.00%*

Stockholm 3.75%

Aarhus 3.75% Amsterdam 3.00%*

Copenhagen 3.00%

Hamburg 2.90%* Berlin 3.20%*

London 2.50%

Brussels 3.25%*

Frankfurt 2.80%*

Paris 2.50%

Munich 2.80%*

12% Retail 27% O ce 47% Residential

2% Hotel 3% Other 9% Industrial/logistics

Note: Breakdown of transaction volume by asset type. Rounded figures. Transaction volume, Denmark. Source: Colliers International

Note: Yields are net initial yields except if marked (*) which denotes gross yields. Source: Colliers International

21

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

20

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eir- mod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo do- lores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd guber- gren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut lab- ore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed

OFFICE

OFFICE HOTEL RETAIL INDUSTRIAL REGIONS RESIDENTIAL

23

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

22

Overview over the office market Overblik over office

Sustained uptrend in Greater Copenhagen commercial property prices documented by six consecutive years of capital gains 8.9% Total average return on commercial property in 2018 15 bps Commercial property sector income return requirement compression in 2018

OFFICE HOTEL RETAIL INDUSTRIAL REGIONS RESIDENTIAL

Grafik

Stet clita kasd gubergren UK

Grafik

Stet clita kasd gubergren DK Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadip- scing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadip- scing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadip- scing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadip- scing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet

Grafik

Grafik

Supply pipeline of building rights is limited in view of current population forecast

Nordhavn 1,700,000 sqm

Grafik

Copenhagen

Carlsberg City District 250,000 sqm

Grafik

Amager

F.L. Smidth and Grønttorvet 150,000 sqm

Grafik

Sydhavnen

Ørestad

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