ENTSOG GRIP South - Main Report

3.3.2 HighDailyDemand

Design case European TSOs estimate each country’s national peak demand for the design and the planning of their national gas networks, because the gas systemsmust be able to copewith this high daily demand. In TYNDP 2013–2022, following a bottom-up approach, the 1-day Design Case Situation is calculated as the aggregation of the national peak demands (design demands). The 1-day Design Case Situation is the most stressful situation, in termsof demand, tobecoveredby thecapacityof theen- tries to the gas transmission system. The 1-dayDesignCase Situation for the SouthRegion is calculated as the aggrega- tion of thenational designdemands of France, Portugal andSpain. The level of risk used in each country of the SouthRegion to calculate the Design Case is different: inFrance it is used a 1-in-50 level of risk and inPortugal andSpain the level of risk is1-in-20. Consequently, the level of riskof theSouthRegion ishigher than1-in-20. The forecast of the 1-day Design Case Situation of the South Region is shown in Figure 3.21. It is expected a steadily increase along the 2013–2022period,mainly due to the increase of thepercentage of power generation in the1-dayDesignCase Situation.

6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 7,000 8,000 GWh/d

6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 7,000 8,000 GWh/d

by sector

by country

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0

France

Portugal

Spain

Conventional Demand (GRIP) TYNDP 2013–2022

Power Generation (GRIP)

TYNDP 2013–2022

Figure 3.21: High daily demand: design case 1-day Design Case Situation for the South Region – breakdown by country (right) and by sector (left)

Image courtesy ofGRTgaz

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ENTSOG–GRIPSouth 2013–2022