The Last Straw

4.1 Water availability is a dynamic factor in food security

Achieving food security without a stable and predictable water supply is not possible. The Hindu Kush Himalayas – the water towers of Asia – provide water for agriculture, electricity generation, industry, and basic household needs for over one billion people downstream. Yet water scenarios for the HKH warn that under a warming climate, the water supply from the Hindu Kush Himalayan glaciers is becoming less reliable. In the near term, these glaciers are expected to release more water than usual, then diminish

gradually over the longer term to significantly reduced volumes (Immerzeel et al. 2010; Douglas 2009; Krishna 2005). Although there will be variation to this pattern across the HKH region, overall, increasing demand and poor water management are expected to pose serious challenges throughout the region (Hijioka et al. 2014).

Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Indus Rivers until 2050 (Lutz and Immerzeel 2013). It is thought, however, that climate change impacts will be felt more quickly in the Indus River as glacial melt plays a much larger role in the flow of this river (44.8%) than the others (Immerzeel et al. 2010; Kaser et al . 2010). The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report projects rising temperatures, high rainfall variability, and increases in extreme weather events for Asia which are likely to

HICAP studies indicate that there will be no significant changes in water availability in the Salween, Mekong,

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