The Last Straw

“Floods, droughts, and rainfall patterns are expected to negatively impact crop yields, food security, and livelihoods in vulnerable areas.”

Food, water, and energy security in the Hindu Kush Himalayas needs a nexus approach

Golam Rasul, ICIMOD (based on Rasul 2012)

The FAO estimates that global food produc- tion must increase by 70% by 2050 to meet the demands of more than 9 billion people (FAO 2009). The majority of these people will live in Asia, adding increased demand for water and energy into the calculation. The Hindu Kush Himalayan mountain systems provide ecosystem services for agriculture and supply water and energy to downstream areas in the HKH coun- tries. There are strong linkages between food, water, and energy security. Water is needed for agricultural production but also to generate energy through hydropower. Energy is needed for agriculture, food processing, storage, and trans- port, as well as for water treatment and wastewater disposal. The demand for all three is increasing as a result of growing populations, industrializa- tion, urbanization, and economic growth in the HKH. Agricultural intensification has led to a result in declining agricultural productivity, especially of cereals (Hijioka et al. 2014). Agriculture in the HKH will be particularly affected by changes in water supply. Food production will be disrupted by variation in monsoon onset and duration, and frequency of floods and droughts (Douglas 2009). There is, however, still a lack of sufficient and accurate data for assessments in the HKH mountain region because hydro-meteorological data for historical time series is scarce and high-elevation weather stations are few. The HKH region is heavily influenced by the southwest monsoon during summer and westerly disturbances in winter. This is a region where the majority of the population depends on rain for agriculture, and the pre-monsoon and monsoon account for 88% of the rainfall (Bookhagen and

great dependency on water and energy so that energy prices also affect food prices (transport, irrigation, fertilizer, processing, and marketing. Overall, productivity needs to be increased on the amount of currently cultivated land. Watershed management and the protection of forests, wetlands, and rangelands are crucial in sustaining ecosystem services and ensuring their resilience. This includes restoring natural water storage capacity, and providing incentives for mountain communities to manage water- sheds, wetlands, and biodiversity in a sustainable manner. Adopting sustainable agricultural prac- tices, including good water management and ener- gy-saving technologies, will also contribute to the conservation of ecosystems and watersheds. All of these measures will be necessary for improved food security in the region. Burbank 2010). Precipitation varies from 3000 mm in the Eastern Himalayas to 100 mm in the southern plain desert on the Western side. The Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers rely on monsoons and glaciers, whereas the Indus River depends much more on melting of snow and glaciers (Rajbhandari et al. 2013). Historical analysis (1951–2007) shows that the wettest years were recorded in the 1950s, while the last decade was the driest, indicating a trend of drought (Shrestha 2012). Apart from some positive increases in precipitation over the east Himalayan belt, intensity and quantity decreases, especially on the southern slope/central part of the HKH. For temperature, annual statistics show a warming trend: minimum winter temperatures are increasing as are extremes in maximum temperatures, especially in higher altitudes (Shrestha 2012).

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Hijioka et al. 2014)

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