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O
il shocks, wars, terrorism, nuclear prolifera-
tion, military and autocratic regimes, ethnic
and religious violence, riots and revolutions
are the most frequent headlines that draw attention to
the Middle East. The region is also identified with
Islam, often in unflattering terms. The creed is seen
as intolerant and illiberal, oppressive of women and minorities.
There are concerns that violence is not only endemic in the region,
but also follows migrants overseas. All clichés contain a dose of
truth, but that truth needs to be placed in its proper context. The
turbulences visited upon the Middle East that grab the headlines are
only the symptoms of a deep social phenomenon: the demographic
transition. This transition happens once in the life of a society. It is
the transition from the agrarian to the industrial age, from rural to
urban life, from illiteracy to mass education, all of which supported
by massive population growth. It is this transition that fueled the
recent development of East Asia, leading to rapid social and eco-
nomic modernization and to some form of democratization there. It
is the same transition that, back in the 19th century, inspired
nationalism and socialism in Europe, and that saw the excesses of
imperialism, fascism, and Marxist-Leninism. The demographic tran-
sition is a period of high risks and great opportunities, and the chal-
lenge for the Middle East is to fall on the right side of the sword.
In 1950, the population of the Middle East was about 100 mil-
lion; it passed 250 million in 1990. Today it exceeds 400 million, to
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Introduction
by Camille Pecastaing, Ph.D.