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www.speechpathologyaustralia.org.au/SP20302
Royal Dutch Shell. (2012).
40 Years of Shell Scenarios
. Retrieved from
www.shell.comScenarios for the speech pathology profession
in Australia
Even though we can never be certain what will eventuate,
scenarios offer the chance to:
• recognise, test and challenge our assumptions;
• improve the quality of shared conversations;
• build understanding of the mix of factors that may stimulate
particular types of change;
• explore and develop strategies resilient across different
circumstances;
• “rehearse” the circumstances in which different strategies
might be introduced; and
• increase attentiveness to the early signs of change
indicating the need for a shift in strategy.
Each of these opportunities ultimately supports us to make
wiser choices in the present.
Scenarios will never answer all our questions (nor are they
intended to). But they should help us to ask better questions,
plan in a more considered way, and be better prepared for the
unexpected.
The following pages present three different scenarios for
Australian speech pathologists to reflect on, guide their
observations of emerging trends, and inform their planning.
The three scenarios are:
1. Evidence matters.
2. A shift in the funding balance.
3. Recovery through collaboration.
A set of “What if…” questions accompany each scenario
encouraging the reader to deepen their thinking and explore
possible outcomes.
Scenarios give us lenses that help us see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive
to uncertainties. (
Jeremy Bentham
)
2
Once key drivers of change are identified, stories of plausible futures can be developed to explore different combinations of these
drivers arising in different ways. Different scenarios are likely to reveal a mix of both encouraging opportunities and challenging
circumstances.