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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
2.5.3 TOTAL DEMAND
The following figures show the evolution of the total gas demand in the TYNDP
assessment years for all scenarios. This covers information regarding yearly
average volume, as well as the high demand cases of peak day and 2–week high
demand case average daily demand.
2.5.3.1 Volume
When combining the final gas demand and gas demand for power generation, the
varying trends driven by the scenario parameters produces some interesting results.
Slow Progression, as expected, has a relatively stable gas demand across the
assessment period. However, Green Evolution shows a similar profile as the
reductions seen in the final demand sector are balanced by the increase in gas
demand for power as coal is phased out and back up for RES generation is required.
Both scenarios decrease by just over 3% in 2035 when compared to 2017.
Blue Transition produces an upward trend across the period reaching a 10%
increase by 2035, whereas by the same point the EU Green Revolution decreases
by 12.5%, offering the extremes of the demand envelope for TYNDP 2017.
0
4,500
4,000
5,500
5,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
TWh/y
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
Slow Progression
EU Green Revolution
Green Evolution
Blue Transition
Figure 2.34:
Total gas demand