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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 - Main Report

1

Table of Content

4

Foreword

6

1 Introduction

8

1.1 A strengthened cooperation with stakeholders

10

1.2 A highly transparent TYNDP ensuring reliable inputs

12

1.3 An improved analysis

13

1.4 Structure of the Report

16

Feedback Section

18

F.1 From draft to the final TYNDP 2017

19

F.2 ACER Opinion and ­Recommendations

21

F.3 Public Consultation and Stakeholder Feedback

35

F.4 List of main assumptions and inputs

40

2 Demand

44

2.1 Introduction

45

2.2 Current state

46

2.3 Demand Sector Specifics

59

2.4 Demand scenarios

64

2.5 TYNDP Demand Data

73

2.6 Climate data

89

2.7 Comparison with other ­demand scenarios

95

3 Supply

98

3.1 Introduction

99

3.2 Historic supply

101

3.3 Supply potentials

106

3.4 Total potential supply to Europe

138

­4 Infrastructure

140

4.1 Introduction

141

4.2 Gas infrastructures and ­European energy policy

141

4.3 Project data collection ­process

142

4.4 Project status and ­Infrastructure Levels

144

4.5 Analysis of project ­submission

146

5 Barriers to ­Investment

164

5.1 Introduction

165

5.2 Overall impact of energy policies

165

5.3 Project Promoter Perspective

166

5.4 TSO perspective

172

6 Assessment

174

6.1 General consideration on ­assessment results

175

6.2 Supply Adequacy Outlook

178

6.3 Assessment of reasonable infrastructure needs and ­investment gaps

181

6.4 Energy System-wide ­costs-benefits analysis of Advanced Projects

219

6.5 Impact of the projects on the second PCI list

234

6.6 Conclusions

240

7 Energy ­Transition

242

7.1 Introduction

243

7.2 Sector coupling

244

7.3 Storage and Transmission

245

7.4 Renewable Gases

248

7.5 Gas in the transport sector

250

7.6 Summary

251

8 Gas Quality Outlook

252

8.1 Introduction

253

8.2 Input data

254

8.3 Results

255

9 Conclusions

258

9.1 Introduction

259

9.2 An inclusive and highly transparent TYNDP

259

9.3 Several paths to achieving the EU targets

260

9.4 Europe should maintain a diversified supply portfolio

262

9.5 Market integration is at hand

263

9.6 A more comprehensive ­approach to energy ­infrastructure is needed

264

9.7 Way forward

265

Definitions

266

Abbreviations

271

Country Codes ( ISO )

273

List of Tables

274

List of Figures

276

Bibliography

282

Legal Disclaimer

284

List of Annexes

286